#美联储降息政策 Recently, I have observed increasing disagreements within the Federal Reserve, which reminded me of a principle I explained to a friend many years ago.

Markets always fluctuate amid uncertainty. This rate cut may seem simple on the surface, but it actually reflects the genuine differences among decision-makers regarding the economic outlook—some are worried about persistent inflation risks, while others prefer continued easing, each with their own considerations. The dot plot reveals more than just the surface opposition votes; six members actually do not support this rate cut, sending a more hawkish signal than we might have imagined.

What does this mean for us investors? It indicates that policy certainty is decreasing, and market volatility is likely to increase. At such times, I am increasingly convinced of one thing: the importance of position management is severely underestimated. It’s not about being overly conservative, but about recognizing the current real environment and reasonably allocating the assets in hand.

Whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates or pause in the next year is a suspense likely to persist throughout Q1. Instead of trying to predict policy directions, it’s better to ask yourself: Is your risk tolerance for your current holdings suitable for such uncertainty? If not, now is the time to make adjustments.

A long-term mindset is important, but only a rational and well-founded long-term mindset can truly help us get through such periods.