#预测市场 Phantom's launch of the prediction market is worth paying attention to. To be honest, the prediction market sector has always been underestimated—it essentially turns market sentiment and collective intelligence into tradable assets, and liquidity in fields like sports, crypto, and culture is often quite good.

From a follow-trade perspective, the trading logic of prediction market players is fundamentally different from that of derivatives traders. The former relies on information advantage and forward-looking judgment of trends, while the latter focuses more on technical and fundamental battles. Therefore, if you want to find reliable experts to follow in this new market, you need to clearly identify whether they are purely prediction-oriented or arbitrage-oriented—risk tolerance varies greatly.

Kalshi's endorsement is also good; at least it ensures compliance, so there's no need to worry about the market being suddenly shut down. However, newly opened markets often have liquidity pitfalls, so initial participation should control position sizes and avoid being fooled by seemingly low-risk predictions. The younger the market, the higher the probability of black swan events—that's a rule.

After the official opening, I plan to take a quick look at the active prediction players inside to see if there are any clear-minded traders worth following. The returns in prediction markets are often not as good as futures, but win rates and risk control logic are two different things.