2025.12.25 Daily Report

Yesterday was Christmas Eve, and overall market sentiment remains positive. The US stock market continued to rebound slightly, with the S&P 500 index once again breaking its all-time high.

Although BTC has not yet surpassed $90,000, there was no significant decline, indicating that investor sentiment remains relatively stable.

This is quite important during the holiday period when liquidity is poor. No major disturbances are good news, and we will wait until after the holiday to see how the situation develops.

From the data, BTC's turnover rate and trading volume are both decreasing. Currently, most of the selling is from short-term investors, while early investors are mostly watching from the sidelines.

From a capital perspective, there are signs of outflows in the market, with $400 million flowing out yesterday. The total market cap is currently $3.13 trillion.

USDT remains relatively stable, increasing by $20 million, while USDC's market cap shrank by $334 million, indicating that US funds are more sensitive to Christmas holidays, and capital tends to flow out during this period.

Another point worth noting is that Wall Street's bearish veteran Tom Lee states that we are now at the intersection of three historic waves.

The first is the fuel provided by rate cuts.

In his view, the Fed's shift to rate cuts is like a strong shot of confidence to the market.

The past two rate hike cycles have been intense, but the US economy has shown great resilience. Now that inflation is under control, the Fed has begun to cut rates.

Historical experience shows that as long as the US economy does not enter a major recession, the rate-cutting cycle acts as a booster for asset prices. Liquidity returns, and those off-market funds worth trillions will flood into the stock market.

The second is the AI-driven "Fourth Industrial Revolution."

This is also the core technological support in Tom Lee's bullish logic.

He believes AI is not just short-term speculation but a productivity revolution similar to the steam engine, electricity, and the internet.

He repeatedly emphasizes in his reports that AI will fundamentally enhance corporate profitability.

Previously, S&P 500 profit growth mainly relied on globalization and cost-cutting. In the future, AI through automation and efficiency improvements could break through profit margin ceilings.

He even predicts that by 2030, technology stocks could account for more than half of the S&P 500.

If that happens, many traditional valuation models may become invalid.

The third is the "wealth relay" of the younger generation.

This is a structural factor often overlooked by the market. Tom Lee points out that Millennials and Generation Z are entering their income peak periods.

Compared to their parents, this generation is digital natives, more accustomed to financial investments, and has a natural affinity for tech stocks.

This demographic dividend, combined with a large-scale wealth transfer over the next few decades, will provide continuous buying support for the stock market.

However, for us, these predictions from the big players should only be used as references; it’s better to focus on their logic.

Currently, it is clear that US long-term bonds are strengthening, the dollar is weakening, and gold continues to hit new highs. Before Christmas, liquidity tends to favor defensive assets.

Since August, Bitcoin and gold have diverged.

Bitcoin took half a year to catch up with gold's gains, but after August, it started to weaken. After peaking on October 8, it has been declining steadily.

It shows that conservative investors prefer gold, while Bitcoin is more suitable for aggressive investors.

The overall macro environment is currently unfavorable for risk markets. Coupled with holiday effects and liquidity shifting toward defensive assets, it will be difficult for risk markets to perform well in the short term.