#通胀压力 After three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, internal disagreements have actually intensified—this signal is worth paying attention to. Nick Timiraos's latest interpretation hits the core contradiction: the coexistence of sticky inflation and weakening employment has clearly reduced the committee’s willingness to continue cutting rates.

Key observation: Powell has only three rate meetings remaining in his term, and each decision within this time frame will carry more political considerations. UBS Chief Economist’s statement is straightforward—when interest rates approach neutral levels, supporters of rate cuts will gradually decrease, requiring stronger data to maintain majority consensus.

The comparison to the stagflation of the 1970s is obviously not a comfortable historical reference. Back then, the Fed’s “stop-and-go” approach ultimately allowed high inflation to take root. Policy makers should have learned a lesson from that. But from the current policy deadlock, the market needs to prepare for the possibility that the rate cut cycle may end earlier than expected.

Large on-chain whales have already sensed this. Monitoring the flow of funds from whale addresses, especially the switching between U.S. Treasuries and cryptocurrencies, often reflects true expectations ahead of official statements. If institutional investors accelerate rebalancing during this window, the pricing of inflation pressures may still be far from complete.