If you want to find certainty in the crypto circle, you can actually focus on two US stock market indicators: Coinbase stock and MicroStrategy stock.

A review of the past year's trend can reveal the clues. As early as mid-July, these two stocks led the way downward, and the market's risk signals had been there for a while. Bitcoin experienced a wave of correction at that time, but with ample liquidity support, it was forcibly pushed back up. It wasn't until December's new peak failed that the market truly recognized that it had entered a correction cycle.

There's an interesting phenomenon here: most people obsess over minute-by-minute price charts, studying support and resistance levels, unaware that the real leading risk pricing power actually lies with the US stock market. Institutional investors in the US stocks tend to detect shifts in market sentiment earlier.

To put it simply, the market doesn't turn without warning. It's just that most people, when seeing signals, choose to ignore or bypass them intentionally or unintentionally. This is a common psychological issue in trading—when judgment conflicts with reality, people tend to trust their own beliefs rather than the data.