#美联储回购协议计划 December 25 Midday Market Recap

**$BTC Recent Thoughts**

After Bitcoin breaks above the hourly close price of 87,868, confirmation on the right side can be considered for long entries, with a stop loss at 87,502. Conversely, if it breaks below 87,502 with volume, short positions on the right side can also be considered, but stop losses should be well placed, and attention must be paid to volume changes — volume fluctuations determine the subsequent direction. Around 86,861, there was a false breakdown; a rebound can be considered for an additional long, with the low of the false breakdown or a break below 86,058 as a stop loss. If it doesn't recover, avoid forcing the trade.

On the hourly chart, if Bitcoin breaks above 88,146 and stabilizes, the next target could be around 88,895-89,586. For those looking to short, watch for a false breakout at 89,586, enter a short position, and set a stop loss if it breaks to 90,638. Conservative traders can wait for a pullback to 85,286 to go long, with a stop loss at 83,777.

Yesterday, Bitcoin experienced a false breakdown below 86,737 support, then quickly rebounded — this support at 86,737 is very strong; multiple attempts to break it with wicks did not result in a close below. After the false breakdown, the triangle pattern was broken, and a rebound started from the neckline at 87,493. Currently, a W-bottom pattern appears on the hourly chart, with the neckline at 88,137. A breakout above 88,137 would confirm the W-bottom, with potential targets at 88,888-89,533. If it cannot break higher, there are no higher targets; as long as the pullback does not fall below 87,493, patience is needed for a gradual upward breakout. If it truly breaks below 87,493, the next support is at 86,737 — if it can hold this time, it would be a miracle, as it has been tested multiple times.

Resistance levels: 88,146-88,895-89,586
Support levels: 87,493-86,737-85,632
On the 4-hour chart, a break below 87,517 suggests watching 86,769-86,116.

**$ETH Strategy**

If Bitcoin breaks above 2,949 with volume, consider a long on the right side, with a stop loss at entry. If it breaks below 2,943 with volume, consider a short on the right side, with a well-placed stop loss.

A pullback to 2,906 confirming support can add an extra long, with a stop loss below 2,863. If it stabilizes above 2,962 on the hourly chart, targets are 3,002-3,037. A short opportunity appears at 3,037, with a stop loss if it breaks to 3,078. A single wick on the left side at 2,831 can be a long entry, with a stop loss below 2,789.

Resistance levels: 2,962-3,002-3,037
Support levels: 2,909-2,880-2,832
On the 4-hour chart, a break below 2,907 suggests watching 2,856-2,783. The second bullish flag pattern was broken; as long as it remains above the upper boundary of the flag (around 2,900), it won't trigger a downside. There is a chance for Bitcoin to revisit 3,000.