2025-12-25 03:27:49

This Friday marks a historic moment—approximately 300,000 BTC options contracts are set to expire, with a notional value of up to $23.7 billion. This is the largest options expiration event on record, doubling the scale compared to last year. Many traders are confused and unsure what this means.

In reality, expiration often triggers two very different market trends.

Let's look at the first scenario. If, after expiration, the price stays within the $3100 to $3200 range, the gains from call options and put options will roughly balance out, and the overall market will remain relatively stable. But there's a crucial detail here—among Deribit's open interest, the call-to-put ratio is only 0.38, meaning the number of call options is nearly three times that of put options. If the price cannot stay above $3100, more than half of the open interest will instantly lose value, and holders will face significant losses. So, the $3100 level is critical—it acts like a watershed.

The second scenario tests traders' mental resilience. If the market plunges into a fierce battle between bulls and bears, it can easily lead to one-sided trends and frequent sharp swings. Once the bulls lose the $3100 line, bears can maintain their advantage, and many long-position holders will face the risk of losses at expiration. In this situation, the market will be filled with uncertainty and risk.

So, what should you do? The most practical advice might sound counterintuitive: sometimes, the best move in such a huge market event is to do nothing. Think back to the last time the Japanese yen raised interest rates—markets were generally bearish, but in fact, macro news like this had already been digested by the market in advance, leading to heavy losses for short positions on that day.

Options expiration is different. Before expiration, the market remains in a continuous tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and there’s no impact from news that can be pre-absorbed. The real influence will be reflected directly at the moment of expiration—it will reshape traders’ outlooks for next year's market.

Therefore, the most prudent strategy is to look for genuine entry opportunities and avoid becoming an unnecessary sacrifice in this battle between bulls and bears. Stay alert, but also be patient.

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SchrodingerWallet

· 4h ago

$23.7 billion options are about to explode? Damn, this scale, the last time it was not even half of this. Is $3100 really that critical? It feels like the expiration date is just a feast for the whales. Not trading is the best strategy? Sounds simple, but actually doing it really tests your mindset haha. Longs are a bit risky this time, the put-to-call ratio is only 0.38, this data is a bit scary. The problem is I can't tell if it will break 3100 or not, so it's better to just avoid this bloodbath. The largest scale in history? It will definitely be even bigger next time, anyway, we're all destined to be harvested. Waiting for the real entry opportunity? I'm afraid I'll miss it again by then, it’s always like this. In this kind of market, not making money is considered winning. Really, just staying alive is a gain.

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GateUser-44a00d6c

· 4h ago

$23.7 billion... It's really a slaughterhouse, can the 3100 level hold? --- Watching the bears get blown up countless times, this time only a break below 3100 will be stimulating. --- Not trading? Haha, I just can't resist the itch. --- Wait, the short-to-long ratio at 0.38... are the bulls so rampant? --- On the expiration day, isn't it just a matter of whose weight is heavier? Feels like another big player harvesting the game. --- $23.7 billion in one move, some are about to lose everything, exciting. --- Is 3100 really that critical? Feels like every year there's a "key level," and every year it's broken. --- The best move is not to trade—that's probably why I never make money, haha. --- Bull and bear tug-of-war... Basically, it's just a matter of who kneels first.

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AirdropF5Bro

· 4h ago

$23.7 billion... That number sounds outrageous, anyway I wouldn't dare to take this Friday's order. Put/Call ratio of 0.38? The bulls are gambling with their lives, if it drops to 3100, how many people will die? To put it simply, it's best not to act when you don't expect it. Just wait and watch the show.

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ParanoiaKing

· 5h ago

$23.7 billion worth of options are expiring, and you're still telling me not to operate? That logic is a bit shaky. --- Can 3100 really hold? The bullish ratio seems so disproportionate, feels a bit like a trap. --- Another bunch of analysis, but in the end, it's still that phrase "stay patient." Talking a lot is less effective than laying an ambush in advance. --- The tug-of-war between bulls and bears is just a facade; the big players have already been eating up the chips. --- On options expiration day, those who don't operate can't make money, and those who do lose even more—it's ruthless. --- It sounds nice, but basically it's a gamble on whether 3100 can hold. If you ask me, opening a short position is more secure. --- Once this wave of data comes out, retail traders will lose no matter how they play; all we can do is pray not to get liquidated. --- Wait, the bullish options are more than three times, does that mean institutions are building positions? Something's not right. --- The real entry opportunity? Bro, you'll only know on expiration day where the chance lies.

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SillyWhale

· 5h ago

$23.7 billion, oh my god, this scale is really outrageous. The call options are three times the put options, it feels like betting on the 3100 level. Doing nothing is the best action? I don't believe you. I experienced the yen situation last time too, and I still got trapped. It's easy to say to stay patient, but how can I really not move when I have positions in hand?

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SquidTeacher

· 5h ago

A $23.7 billion options feast, with 3100 becoming the life-and-death line. This round looks quite exciting. Holding steady is gold. I think there's nothing wrong with that statement. Anyway, it's pointless to stir things up on the eve of such a major event. Let's see if Friday's market crashes or rallies. The bulls' 0.38 ratio is indeed quite risky.

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