2025-12-25 03:24:51

$ZBT Spot(ZBTUSDT) Trend｜$BIFI Futures(BIFIUSDT) Market

A wave of rate cuts is coming down, how aggressive is the Fed's move?

Three consecutive rate cuts totaling 75 basis points are not enough, and the market is already talking about another 25 basis points to be cut. Breaking 100 basis points of rate cuts this year is becoming more and more likely. In simple terms, the Federal Reserve is betting—betting that AI technology breakthroughs can offset debt costs, betting that manufacturing can return to the US to boost the economy. But the problem is, core PCE remains sticky, and inflation hasn't even reached 2% before starting to ease. Is this trade worth it? The risk is there—if tariffs suddenly change, inflation could rebound, and the Fed would face a dilemma.

On the other hand, the RMB has gone from breaking below 7.0 to now approaching 6.9. This is no coincidence. Strong exports, fiscal stimulus, real estate being taken up by investors, plus the dollar itself weakening, all indicate that global hot money is pouring into RMB assets. Deutsche Bank has announced—by the end of 2026, the RMB could rise to 6.7, and in the long term, even reach 6.0. See, RMB assets have shifted from "tactical play" to "strategic heavy holdings."

In the crypto market, abundant liquidity was initially a big advantage, but reality is not so rosy. Bitcoin fluctuates around $87,000, Ethereum struggles to stay above $2,900, and recently, policy volatility caused nearly $1 billion in liquidations. During this global liquidity shift, can these fresh funds truly push crypto through this deadlock? Can Bitcoin hold above $90,000? Can Ethereum defend $3,000?

Ultimately, macro liquidity easing is the foundation, but market sentiment and policy expectations are the catalysts. The Fed's rate cut expectations are still being digested, and the capital inflow from RMB appreciation is still being released. Whether the crypto market can break through this oscillation depends heavily on how market participants bet in the coming weeks.

ZBT68.98%

BTC0.72%

ETH-0.01%

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GasFeeSurvivor

· 5h ago

The Fed's latest move is really bold. Are they betting that debt can be absorbed by AI? It sounds like a gambler's mentality. With inflation so sticky, how dare they loosen policy? Turning tariffs around might just backfire directly. On the RMB side, things are quite clear. It's almost at 6.9, and hot money is indeed flowing in. Deutsche Bank's forecast doesn't sound too far off. But when it comes to crypto, it's a bit awkward. Liquidity is overflowing, yet Bitcoin is still hovering around 87,000, as if paralyzed. How bad must the sentiment be? ETH being pressured at 2,900 is really suffocating. The critical level of 90,000 dollars is right there. Who dares to buy in the next few weeks will be the real gamble.

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DarkPoolWatcher

· 5h ago

The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate cuts are making things even more chaotic... Liquidity easing sounds wonderful, but the crypto world still looks like this Having more money actually makes people more hesitant, interesting The logic behind the recent RMB appreciation is indeed valid, but when will crypto shake off the oscillation curse? The 90,000 threshold still feels like too many people are waiting Did the 1 billion liquidation just get brushed off so easily? Not afraid The Fed is betting on AI to reduce debt, and the stakes are high... What if inflation suddenly rebounds? That would be awkward Macro easing ≠ crypto prices must rise, too many people are miscalculating this equation Liquidity is there, but what about confidence? That’s the real key RMB reaching 6.7 isn’t surprising, but the question is, will hot money really stay here long-term? The reason Bitcoin can't hold above 90,000 is ultimately due to unclear policy expectations Ethereum struggling to stay above 3000... honestly, it’s a bit uncertain After this round of rate cuts, who are the real winners?

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BoredApeResistance

· 5h ago

The Fed's recent moves are really a bit of a gambler's mentality—inflation hasn't even cooled down yet, and they're already slashing aggressively. Impressive. The RMB, on the other hand, is holding firm. When hot money floods in, why is crypto still trembling? Bitcoin has been hovering around 87,000 for so long. When will there be an official statement?

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SnapshotLaborer

· 5h ago

The Federal Reserve is betting on the fate of the nation. They started easing before inflation has fully taken hold, and the risk of a crash later is quite high. The recent appreciation of the Renminbi is quite sharp; hot money is really all in for the bottom fishing. Bitcoin is still fluctuating around 87,000, indicating that the major players haven't decided on a clear direction yet. This is the most torturous part. With tariffs changing suddenly, inflation rises again. The Federal Reserve is truly caught in a deadlock. Ethereum struggling to stay above 3000 feels precarious. Even with abundant liquidity, someone still has to take the buy-in.

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OnChainDetective

· 5h ago

Wait a moment, I need to check the on-chain data... Nearly $1 billion liquidation? There must be whales dumping coins behind this number. Haven't you noticed?

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