The three major options for mining machine investments: Why this cycle is worth reevaluating

The continuous rise in Bitcoin prices has sparked a rethinking of asset allocation. Faced with uncertain market rhythms, many investors are exploring risk diversification methods, among which mining machine investments have re-entered the spotlight due to their stable cash flow characteristics.

Three Layers of Asset Allocation Logic

Traditional investment strategies divide funds into three allocation dimensions, with a ratio of 2:4:4.

The first layer is fiat currency reserves, accounting for 20%, used for daily liquidity and emergency investment opportunities. The second layer is cryptocurrency holdings, accounting for 40%, including mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The third layer is computing power assets, also 40%, which is a key focus area for many professional investors, covering traditional mining machines and emerging blockchain gaming projects.

The core advantage of this allocation framework is that stable output can reduce emotional decision-making. When holding a mining machine that continuously generates cash flow, short-term price fluctuations have a significantly reduced impact on the overall plan.

Bitcoin Mining Machines: Value Valleys During the Halving Cycle

Current Context

Bitcoin is about to enter the next halving cycle. Historically, each halving has driven iterative upgrades in mining technology, giving rise to new generations of high-efficiency mining machines. The latest S19 series mining machine has a single-unit hashrate of 198T, representing an 1.8x increase over the previous generation, with only a 60% increase in power consumption, demonstrating clear efficiency advantages.

Price Contradictions

A noteworthy phenomenon is that Bitcoin prices have risen nearly 5 times from the bottom, while mining machine costs have moved inversely. The old 140T mining machine, sold at nearly 80,000 RMB at the time, now sells for around 20,000 RMB, a 75% drop. This stagnation reflects market concerns about the halving cycle.

Similar opportunities have appeared in the past. During Bitcoin’s small bull market in 2019, spot prices increased fourfold while futures mining machine prices remained almost unchanged; in August 2020, Ethereum’s price rose fivefold, but GPU mining machine prices remained stable until September when UNI launched, triggering a surge.

Payback Period Evaluation

Taking the S19 as an example, priced at $27,000, with a daily output of about $23.5, net profit after electricity costs is around $14. Based on the current Bitcoin price of $87,840, the payback period is about 5-6 months.

After the halving, if the coin price doubles to $176,000, even with halved output, the payback period remains around 6-7 months. High electricity costs in North America will phase out inefficient miners, and the total hashrate decline will further support profitability.

Kaspa Mining Machines: A Choice After Risk Pass

As an emerging mining project, Kaspa’s risk factor has been tested by the market. Bitmain and other major mining companies launched dedicated chip miners mid-last year, and nearly a year later, market enthusiasm remains high. Major manufacturers are still developing new models, and the scarcity of machines indicates strong market consensus.

Based on deployed operational data, Kaspa mining machines typically take 5-6 months from purchase to payback. Early investors have controllable costs and can accumulate sufficient chips in a shorter period. Currently, Kaspa’s price is $0.04.

Aleo: The First-Mover Opportunity in Zero-Knowledge Proof Mining

Project Fundamentals

Aleo is in the highly capitalized zero-knowledge proof sector. The project has a luxurious financing background, with a Series B valuation of $1.45 billion, backed by heavyweight investors including A16Z, SoftBank, Samsung, and others. The technical team is strong, and the project’s fundamentals show clear advantages.

Launch Timing Window

Aleo’s mainnet node launch coincides with the early stage of this bull cycle. Futures prices have already reached $0.8, indicating market high expectations. The current spot price is $0.14.

Mining Costs and Returns

At this stage, participation can be through renting graphics cards, with a cost of about 1,000–1,500 RMB per card, making entry relatively easy. As the market matures, dedicated chip miners are expected to launch within 3-4 months. Investors can increase their capital allocation based on market developments, with expected returns potentially exceeding 10x.

Risk Reminder

Graphics card costs are rising, mainly because projects like io.net, Iron Fish, Scroll, and others are also demanding graphics card computing power simultaneously. This may indicate that current graphics card costs are at a relatively low point for the year. Participants interested in entering should lock in resources as soon as possible.

Summary

These three mining directions each have their characteristics: Bitcoin miners offer stable long-term cash flow; Kaspa miners are relatively low-risk emerging assets; Aleo presents a high-risk, high-reward early deployment opportunity. The key to choosing lies in accurately assessing one’s risk tolerance and thoroughly understanding each project’s fundamentals.