Sideways trading never means calm; sometimes, it is precisely the prelude to the next wave of market movement.

Last night's Ethereum price action left many feeling unsettled. The price fluctuated within an $80 range between $2940 and $3020, like an insomniac tossing and turning in bed, playing countless rounds of "bidirectional volatility" overnight. Many traders have long been worn down by this exhausting market behavior.

Behind this prolonged narrow-range oscillation, is it the calm before the storm or a false signal of a high-level trap? As a market observer who follows on-chain data over the long term, it’s worth analyzing the essence of this "grinding market" from several perspectives.

**01 The Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears in the News**

Recently, market news has been a mix of hot and cold. On one hand, the White House economic advisor stated that inflation is only 1.6%, hinting that the Federal Reserve has room to cut interest rates further, injecting some optimism into the market. But a closer look at the data shows that the US November CPI fell to 2.7%, yet due to the government shutdown affecting data collection, its reference value is relatively limited.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, increasing the pressure for global carry trades to unwind. Interestingly, Ethereum did not decline sharply in tandem; instead, it oscillated repeatedly within the $2800-$3000 range. This phenomenon indicates that selling pressure has already begun to weaken in the short term — in other words, the negative news has been gradually priced in, and market players are starting to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

**02 Contradictory Signals in Capital Flows**

What’s more intriguing is the "dual personality" shown by capital flows. From the ETF perspective, inflows into Ethereum funds are inconsistent; but on-chain data shows that large addresses have quietly accumulated during the price decline. This surface-level contradiction is bound to trigger a fierce battle for capital — the tug-of-war between retail investors and institutions, shorts and longs, is far from over.