Retail Giants and E-Commerce Players Positioned for Explosive Growth as Black Friday Approaches

Black Friday, scheduled for November 28, 2025, represents a critical milestone for evaluating consumer spending patterns and investor sentiment. The National Retail Federation projects holiday season retail sales could surpass the $1 trillion threshold for the first time, marking a year-over-year increase between 3.7% and 4.2%. Historical trends indicate the retail sector frequently outpaces the S&P 500 during the weeks surrounding this shopping phenomenon, creating potential opportunities for investors.

Investment Landscape: Which Stocks Are Poised for Volatility?

Analysis of major retailers and e-commerce platforms reveals three standout candidates worthy of investor attention, each presenting distinct catalysts for potential stock movement during the Black Friday period.

Shopify (SHOP) – The Momentum Play

Shopify has emerged as the strongest performer among retail-focused stocks, with shares climbing 36% year-to-date in 2025. During the previous year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday events, merchants using Shopify’s platform generated $11.5 billion in sales—a 24% increase compared to the prior year and a new peak. Institutional analysts anticipate gross merchandise volume could reach unprecedented levels again this November. Current price targets from major financial institutions average $179, suggesting over 22% upside potential from present valuations.

Amazon (AMZN) – The Underperformance Story

Despite maintaining its position as the dominant player in U.S. online retail, Amazon has underdelivered compared to broader market indices and its Magnificent Seven peers. Year-to-date performance shows only a 1% gain, a notable gap against the S&P 500. The e-commerce titan is extending promotional activities across two weeks (November 20 through December 1), with elevated focus on electronics, toys, and beauty segments. Management guidance for fourth-quarter revenue ranges from $206 billion to $213 billion, representing 10%-13% year-over-year expansion. The muted stock performance relative to fundamentals could indicate substantial recovery potential.

Walmart (WMT) – The Steady Performer

Walmart’s omnichannel infrastructure and competitive pricing advantage have traditionally delivered strong Black Friday results. The company’s 2025 promotional calendar runs from November 14 through December 1, organized in three distinct event phases. Year-to-date stock appreciation of 13% positions Walmart in line with broader market performance while outpacing Amazon. Institutional price targets cluster around $116, implying an additional 15% appreciation opportunity.

The Verdict

The convergence of record-anticipated consumer spending, extended promotional periods, and mixed stock valuations creates a compelling environment for Black Friday-driven volatility. Investors monitoring these stocks set to see significant movement should consider both the scale of promotional activity and the baseline valuation gaps currently present in the market.