Gold prices in 2025-2026: Hope for big profits or risk getting caught in the fallout?

Question

Gold has already reached $4,000. Which camp are you in? Are you the one smiling with cheeks full because you’ve already bought gold, or are you sitting and thinking about buying but afraid the price might drop?

The truth is, if you wait for the experts to tell you before making a decision, this article will give you clues about when gold will decline and when is the right time to buy.

Gold’s Unexpected Surge: Up over 66% in just 7 months

Data from Tradingview shows that the gold price at the start of 2025 was around $3,000 per ounce. By the end of October 2025, it had soared to $4,181 per ounce — an increase of over 66% in just 7 months!

Previously, gold took 14 months to rise from $2,000 to $3,000. In simple terms, the speed of the rise doubled. This isn’t natural anymore; it shows that serious buyers are rushing in.

For Thailand, the 96.5% gold bar price continues to move upward. Once it surpasses 62,000 Baht, some institutions that targeted 55,000 Baht have had to raise their targets.

Four forces driving gold to peak

Power of the superpower trade gap

President Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025. This is another response that increases tensions between the two superpowers.

When investors see global economic uncertainty, they tend to quickly “escape” into gold, which is the safest asset in dangerous times.

Central banks race to buy

Data from Goldman Sachs shows that central banks worldwide, especially in emerging markets, have purchased over 1,000 tons of net gold annually for three consecutive years (2023-2025) and continue buying in 2025.

Why are global experts buying? The main reason is “De-dollarization” — many countries are increasingly afraid of relying too much on the US dollar. After Russia’s assets were frozen in 2022, gold became a “life insurance” for countries.

Falling interest rates make gold attractive

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has started lowering interest rates, reducing by 0.25% since September 2025, and markets expect further cuts.

Why does this matter for gold? Because gold prices tend to rise when interest rates fall — with lower yields, investors are willing to hold gold even without interest income, as gold has the potential to appreciate.

BRICS challenge the dollar

News reports suggest that the BRICS group is preparing a gold-backed digital currency. This is an intrusion into the US dollar’s territory, increasing demand for gold.

Where are the world’s top economies heading? The numbers speak for themselves

Goldman Sachs signals a bullish outlook

Top Wall Street names have raised their gold target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, up from the previous $4,300.

Leading analyst Lina Thomas explains that the driving forces are “central bank buying” and “inflows into gold ETFs,” which is a historic phenomenon.

UBS shares the same view

Swiss banking giant UBS predicts gold will reach $3,500 by December 2025, citing “unprecedented central bank accumulation.”

Strategist Joni Teves states that central banks worldwide added about 1,200 tons of gold reserves just in 2025!

General target in Thailand

Based on Goldman Sachs’s $4,900 target, converting to Thai Baht suggests that the price of 96.5% gold bars could reach 75,000-80,000 Baht per Baht within 2026.

Although some profit-taking may occur along the way, the overall tone remains bullish.

Warning: When will gold decline? Overlooked clues

Even though gold prices seem to be soaring, there are tricks that could reduce the space for further gains.

US-China trade negotiations as a peace killer

If the two superpowers sit down for negotiations and show positive signals, tensions will ease, and gold will drop immediately because one of the main reasons for gold’s rise is fear.

Quick profit-taking

Gold has risen for 8 consecutive weeks. Profit-taking traders start to consider selling “Yuan” holdings. RSI signals indicate that the price is overbought (Overbought). This warning doesn’t necessarily mean a sharp decline, but a pause or correction could happen.

Strong dollar

If the US economy remains stronger than expected, and the Fed delays further rate cuts, the dollar will strengthen — making gold priced in dollars more expensive for foreigners, reducing demand.

Inflation re-emerges

If inflation pressures remain higher than expected, the Fed will keep interest rates high, hurting gold because gold has no yield, and high interest rates are unfavorable.

Technical signals on the chart: Where is gold now?

Price surge alert (Price Surge)

Indicators show gold jumped over $250 per ounce in just “a few days” — this is unusual. It signals strong buying momentum and could be a sign that gold can continue to rise later.

RSI in “Overbought” zone

The RSI is now in the Overbought zone (Overbought) — often a precursor to “temporary correction,” but not necessarily a reversal.

Three market recovery phases

According to theory, markets usually go through (1) accumulation (Accumulation) → (2) public participation (Public Participation) → (3) distribution (Distribution).

Currently, gold appears to be in “phase 2” — meaning there is room for the market to continue upward.

How to trade to maximize gains? 3 frameworks

Framework 1: Buy on dips (Buy the Dip)

Since gold is in a strong uptrend, dips are opportunities to buy:

Wait for the price to pull back to key support levels at $3,859 or $3,782
Enter buy positions now, with stop-loss at $3,750
Set targets at $4,084–$4,113 after the rally resumes

Framework 2: Test previous resistance (Breakout Retest)

Gold just broke $4,000. Usually, it will test whether it can sustain this level:

Wait for a pullback to test new support at $3,980–$4,000
Confirm buying again (price rebounds + high volume)
Enter buy, with stop-loss at $3,950
Target: $4,100 and above

Framework 3: Use Fibonacci retracement (Fibonacci Retracement)

If you bought from the low @E0$3,500( to the high @E0$4,059), use Fibonacci levels to find correction points:

38.2% and 61.8% levels are popular sell zones
Buy at these levels with reversal signals
Place stop-loss below the next Fibonacci level

Will gold climb to $4,900 or stop?

Statistics show the overall trend remains upward. However, it won’t be a straight lift — there will be pauses, dips, and sell-offs.

If you want to know “when will gold decline” based on all this data, the high-risk periods are:

If US-China negotiations conclude
If inflation pressures keep the Fed hawkish
If the dollar rebounds strongly

But remember, global tensions remain high. Central banks continue to buy gold, and countries are trying to escape the dollar — these factors still support gold prices.

For those considering buying now, think of it as risk-based on “timing”, not “direction.” There are signals for “entry timing” and “exit timing” for members. That alone makes you a leader!

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