#比特币与黄金战争 Christmas Eve had a good market day, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both hitting new all-time highs. Tech assets followed suit and pushed higher, with a large influx of funds into tech ETFs. The Nasdaq closed with a pleasing gain. That said, Bitcoin wasn’t as lucky—it has been hovering around the $88,000 mark, unable to break through despite multiple attempts to push higher.

Some market participants are starting to voice concerns about the correlation between BTC and tech stocks. Indeed, in recent days, the two have shown some loosening, but a look at the charts from 2024 to 2025 reveals that the Nasdaq and Bitcoin generally move in sync, and this core correlation remains quite stable. If this connection were to break entirely, Bitcoin could face even sharper declines.

On Christmas Day, Bitcoin failed to break the $90,000 barrier but also didn’t experience a sharp plunge. Overall, investors are maintaining a rational attitude, which is especially important during the holiday period when trading volume is sparse—no turbulence, no surprises, which is actually the most ideal situation right now. The real test will come after New Year’s Day.

Looking at on-chain data: as the holiday approaches, the turnover rate and trading volume both decline, which is normal during holidays. However, the lower turnover rate actually helps stabilize prices. From the perspective of chip structure, short-term trading is still dominated by large investors, while those holding $BTC and $ETH long-term are mostly on the sidelines. The current distribution of chips is overall healthy and stable. Based on this trend, in about a month or so, the fifth layer of support may face an adjustment opportunity.