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Recently, the A-shares performed well, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high in December, and the K-line has been showing six consecutive bullish candles. But can this upward momentum continue, and is there a chance for the index to re-stand above 4000 points? Let's first look at the broader context.
The US and European markets are also slightly up, with the Dow Jones rising 288 points, the Nasdaq up 51 points, and European stocks showing mixed gains and losses. This provides some external support for the A-shares, and the offshore RMB remains stable around 7.0. On Wednesday, the A-shares continued their strong momentum, with the Shanghai Index hitting a rebound high for the month and staying above the 20-day moving average for four consecutive trading days. From the candlestick patterns, it indeed looks like a strong phase has begun.
However, there is a hidden risk—trading volume is not keeping pace. On Wednesday, the Shanghai market's turnover was only 770 billion yuan, 30 billion less than the previous trading day. Honestly, a trading volume below 800 billion makes it difficult to sustain the upward push of the index, so a pullback after a rise is quite likely today, and caution is advised.
On the other hand, the consumer sector deserves more attention. Although the overall market is rising, sectors like dairy, liquor, food processing, beverages, pork, and retail are actually declining, though the declines are small, mostly within 1%. Interestingly, there was a rebound in the afternoon after a dip. Since the beginning of the year, consumer themes have been the most sluggish, with liquor leading the decline, dropping over 10%. Usually, such oversold conditions lead to a rebound, and lagging sectors will eventually have a chance for a catch-up rally. With more than a month before the Spring Festival, consumer stocks are often hotly traded during this period each year. This year's consumer themes are likely to see a rebound rally as well.
Another important investment direction not to forget is the concept of "annual report pre-increase." 2025 is coming to an end, and in the first quarter of next year, listed companies will gradually release their annual reports. This period is a window for potential cross-year bull stocks. Historically, concepts like ST (special treatment) stocks, delisting, high dividends, high share transfers, and pre-increase in annual profits are the main focuses of market speculation, all characterized by rapid earnings growth. Profit growth is the driving force behind stock price increases, and sustained expectations of growth can give stocks more room to rise. High-quality companies that have maintained high performance growth in the first three quarters are the most worth researching, as they are most likely to become the next cross-year bull stocks or even double-up stocks.