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Tomorrow (December 26th), the crypto market will stage an epic showdown—the largest Bitcoin options expiration in history.
The data is in front of us: $17.2 billion in call options, $6.2 billion in put options, totaling over $23 billion at stake, all betting on the price at the close tomorrow. This is no small event; it’s a true heavyweight market event.
Have you sensed the strange atmosphere in the market lately? Bitcoin is locked in a narrow range, unable to break up or down. The 4-hour chart leans downward, and the 15-minute chart also struggles to stabilize. The entire market liquidity is being drained little by little by this showdown. This sideways movement, "on the verge of breaking," looks like it’s gathering strength, but it could actually be a carefully orchestrated squeeze.
Why is this happening? Market veterans know well: on the eve of options expiration, prices tend to move in a direction that renders the most options worthless. This minimizes costs for the big players and maximizes their gains. Currently, a large volume of call options are stacked at high levels, while put options are more scattered. Pushing the price down to invalidate those high-level call options is highly attractive economically to the main holders.
So, the real idea is: now is not the best time to enter. The true direction often only becomes clear after this "options nail" is pulled out. In such a high-stakes showdown, retail leverage positions are like building houses during an earthquake—too risky to justify.
After the 26th, things might become clearer.