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This phenomenon is indeed quite fascinating. The recent performance of BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF (IBIT) can hardly be described as anything less than "ice and fire"—the price has fallen nearly 10%, yet capital inflows have not stopped; instead, they have surged into the top six U.S. ETFs this year in terms of attracting funds. This logic is almost incomprehensible in traditional investing, but in the current crypto asset market, it has become the norm.
Retail investors and institutions are making completely opposite judgments. Retail investors see the decline and instinctively react with "I need to sell quickly," thinking about risk. But Harvard's endowment funds, Middle Eastern sovereign funds, and others are quietly increasing their positions, some even by several times. What's the difference? Essentially, it's a matter of different perspectives on assets.
For large institutions, Bitcoin has long been upgraded from "that thing that can skyrocket or plummet" to a standard asset class—its status is no different in essence from gold or government bonds, it's just a matter of allocation ratio. These spot ETFs completely avoid the hassle of managing private keys and finding reliable custodians, making them compliant and hassle-free. From their perspective, a price decline actually presents a low-cost opportunity to build positions.
This also reflects a more fundamental shift: ETFs have completely reshaped the market ecology of Bitcoin.
Think about the past—holding Bitcoin required registering accounts, transferring and withdrawing, constantly worrying about private key security. Now, it can be done with just a few clicks, greatly lowering the barrier. But what comes with that? Increased volatility that is more straightforward and rapid. Previously, to fully sell out, you had to go through the entire process; now, a single click can exit, and the speed of emotional transmission is frightening. Moreover, large amounts of capital are flowing into the market through ETFs, and holding costs tend to accumulate around certain price ranges. Once the price approaches, selling pressure can instantly amplify. These are new variables that only appear in the ETF era, changing the rhythm and depth of the market.