2025 Gold Price Outlook: Is There Still a Chance to Enter Now?

Between 2024 and 2025, the global economic situation is turbulent, and gold has once again become the market focus. After breaking the historical record of $4,400 per ounce at the end of October, although there was a correction, market enthusiasm remains high. Many investors share the same question: Will gold continue to rise? Is it too late to enter now?

To answer these questions, it is necessary to first understand the underlying logic driving gold price changes. This article will analyze the core factors behind this round of gold market movements one by one.

The Three Main Drivers Behind the Surge in Gold Prices

Policy Risks Trigger Safe-Haven Demand

A series of tariff policies introduced by the new US leadership have become the direct catalyst for this round of gold price increases. Policy uncertainty has rapidly heightened market risk aversion. Historical data shows that during the US-China trade tensions in 2018, gold experienced short-term gains of 5-10% during policy vacuum periods.

When the market is full of uncertainties, gold as a safe-haven asset naturally becomes more attractive.

The Launch of the Federal Reserve Rate Cut Cycle

Expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have a profound impact on gold prices. When interest rates decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, enhancing its competitiveness relative to other assets.

It is worth noting that within two days after the September FOMC meeting, gold prices actually retreated. This is because the 25 basis point rate cut had already been digested by the market, and Powell characterized it as a “risk management rate cut” rather than a signal of ongoing rate cuts, causing investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude toward subsequent rate cut pacing.

Why is the Fed’s move so critical? Based on historical observations, gold prices tend to move inversely with real interest rates—the lower the interest rates, the higher the gold price. The formula is: Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate - Inflation rate. Therefore, whenever market expectations for rate cuts adjust, gold prices tend to react accordingly.

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting is 84.7%. Investors can use this data as a reference for predicting gold price trends.

Continuous Central Bank Gold Purchases

According to data from the World Gold Council(WGC), in Q3 2025, global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold, a 28% increase quarter-on-quarter. In the first nine months, total gold purchases amounted to approximately 634 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year but still at a high level.

More notably, the WGC released a survey report on central bank gold reserves in June—76% of surveyed central banks believe that the proportion of gold in their total reserves will be “moderately or significantly increased” over the next five years, while most expect the US dollar reserve ratio to decline. This reflects a growing consensus among global central banks on the long-term value of gold.

Other Factors Driving Gold Prices

High Global Debt and Slowing Economic Growth

By 2025, global debt has reached $307 trillion. The heavy debt burden limits the flexibility of monetary policies in various countries, favoring easing policies, which directly suppress real interest rates and indirectly boost gold attractiveness.

Declining Confidence in the US Dollar

When the dollar depreciates or market confidence wanes, dollar-denominated gold assets tend to benefit, often attracting capital inflows.

Persistent Geopolitical Risks

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East have increased safe-haven demand for precious metals, triggering short-term volatility.

Media and Social Media Sentiment

Intensive media coverage and emotional hype on social media lead to a flood of speculative funds into the gold market, reinforcing the upward trend in the short term.

Note: These factors may cause sharp fluctuations in the short term but do not necessarily indicate a sustained long-term trend. For Taiwanese investors, the international gold price chart should be considered together with USD/TWD exchange rate fluctuations.

How Do Mainstream Institutions View Gold Prices in 2026?

Despite recent volatility in gold prices, many top international institutions remain optimistic about the medium- and long-term outlook:

• J.P. Morgan Commodity Team: Views the recent correction as a “normal adjustment,” with the long-term bullish logic unchanged, and has raised the Q4 2026 target price to $5,055 per ounce.

• Goldman Sachs: Maintains a target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026.

• Bank of America: Continues to be optimistic about precious metals, raising the 2026 target price to $5,000, with strategists suggesting gold could hit $6,000 next year.

• Jewelry Retail Sector: Well-known brands such as Chow Tai Fook, Luk Fook Jewelry, Chao Hong Ji, and Chow Sang Sang in Mainland China still quote pure gold jewelry at over 1,100 RMB/gram, with no significant correction observed.

These data collectively support a strong upward trend in the international gold price chart. Gold, as a globally trusted reserve asset, remains fundamentally supported in the medium to long term. However, investors should remain cautious about short-term volatility, especially around US economic data releases and policy meetings.

Should Retail Investors Still Build Positions Now?

After understanding the logic behind this gold rally, everyone should be able to make a basic judgment about the market outlook. The current trend is not over; both medium- and short-term participation are still possible. The key is not to follow blindly. Especially for novice traders, during volatile periods, it’s easy to chase high and cut low, which can lead to significant losses after multiple cycles. Here are some practical tips:

This is only personal observation and sharing, not investment advice.

For experienced short-term traders: The oscillating pattern offers many opportunities. Liquidity is ample, and the direction of movement is relatively easier to judge, especially during sharp rises or falls, where bullish and bearish forces are clear. Skilled investors can seize these opportunities.

For beginners aiming to catch volatility: Start with small amounts; do not blindly increase positions. A collapsing mindset can easily lead to total loss. It’s recommended to use economic calendar tools to track US economic data to assist decision-making.

For those wanting to hold physical gold long-term: Entering now requires mental preparation for significant fluctuations. Although the long-term trend is positive, consider whether you can withstand the intense volatility along the way.

For those wanting to allocate gold in their portfolio: It’s entirely feasible, but remember that gold’s volatility is not lower than stocks. Avoid putting all your eggs in one basket; diversification is wiser.

For investors seeking maximum returns: You can combine long-term holdings with short-term trading based on price fluctuations, especially around US market data releases, where volatility often amplifies. This requires some trading experience and risk management skills.

A few important reminders:

• Gold’s annual amplitude averages 19.4%, more volatile than the S&P 500’s 14.7%.

• Gold cycles are long; a time frame of over 10 years is needed to truly reflect its value preservation function, but within this period, it can double or halve.

• Physical gold trading costs are relatively high, usually between 5% and 20%.

• It’s advisable not to concentrate excessively; adhere to diversification principles.

Overall, the gold market is still ongoing, but before entering, thoroughly assess your risk tolerance and investment horizon.