Will gold prices in 2026 break through or not? Factors supporting and risks to know before investing

In the past few months, gold prices have risen from $3,000 to $4,181 per ounce, reaching an all-time high. The first time was on October 20, 2025. Those who bought gold months ago may feel pleased, but for hesitant investors, the question is: Will gold prices fall again, or will they continue to rise in 2026?

Four reasons why gold prices surged over 60% in one year

Gold prices did not increase by chance. Several fundamental factors support this rise:

Trade tensions are the main spark

The trade conflict between the US and China has escalated into a full-blown trade war. President Trump announced a plan to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 2025, in response to China’s restrictions on rare earth exports. The global economic uncertainty caused by this conflict has led investors to seek risk hedging. Gold has become the best option for diversification.

Central banks are major buyers

Particularly interesting is the gold purchases by central banks in emerging markets. Currently, central banks worldwide have been net buyers of over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years (2023-2025) and remain interested in 2026. The goal is to diversify away from reliance on the US dollar (De-dollarization). This movement accelerated after the Russian central bank’s assets were frozen in 2022, making many countries aware of the risks of over-reliance on a single currency.

Rate cuts support gold

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun a rate-cutting cycle, reducing rates by 0.25% in September 2025. Markets expect further cuts in October and December. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive for investors holding other currencies. Generally, gold prices move inversely to real interest rates. When rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making gold more attractive.

BRICS group seeks to reduce dollar dominance

The development of a BRICS digital currency backed by gold, intended for use as a medium of exchange among member countries, is a significant move challenging the US dollar’s dominance. This measure emphasizes the strategic importance of gold in the new global financial system.

What do big Wall Street names see: bullish gold price targets

Global financial institutions are increasing their gold price forecasts:

Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 (up from previous estimates of $4,300) and has upgraded its year-end 2025 target to $3,300 (from $2,890). Analyst Lina Thomas states that strong demand from central banks and ETF inflows are the main drivers.

UBS initially forecasted gold reaching $3,500 per ounce in December 2026, emphasizing that “central bank gold accumulation patterns are unprecedented,” according to strategist Joni Teves, who notes that global central banks added over 1,200 tons of gold in just 2025 alone.

Gold price forecast in Thailand

If we divide the target of $4,900 per ounce (according to Goldman Sachs) back into the price of 96.5% gold bars in Thai Baht, it suggests that a price range of 75,000–80,000 Baht per baht-weight of gold could be possible by 2026. Although there may be minor fluctuations along the way, the overall trend points toward higher prices.

Technical trading signals: what do current indicators suggest?

Technical analysis reveals several interesting signals:

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in overbought territory, indicating a possible short-term correction to shake out weak hands. However, if buying pressure remains, RSI can stay high, confirming an overall bullish trend.

Candlestick patterns suggest short-term reversal signals, such as Shooting Star formations. Nonetheless, if the main trend remains strong, these dips may only be temporary consolidations.

Support and resistance levels to watch: first support at $3,859 (October start), and another at $3,782. Maintaining these levels increases the likelihood of further upward movement.

Important warnings: factors that could cause gold prices to fall

Despite the overall bullish outlook, investors should be cautious of:

Trade negotiations or easing tensions between the US and China. Progress here could lead to rapid declines in gold.

US dollar recovery. If the US economy outperforms expectations, the Fed might delay rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold prices.

Profit-taking sell-offs. After an 8-week rally, investors may start selling to lock in gains, causing short-term dips.

Persistent inflation. If inflation remains high, the Fed may keep interest rates elevated longer than expected, which could dampen gold prices.

Gold trading strategies in the current environment

Investors considering entering the market now might consider these approaches:

Method 1: Wait for a pullback (Buy the Dip)

Since gold is in an uptrend but has risen quickly, a short-term correction is possible. Wait for the price to fall to support levels at $3,859 or $3,782, confirmed by RSI approaching 50. Enter buy positions then, with profit targets at previous highs of $4,059 or the next resistance zone at $4,084–$4,113.

Method 2: Test the breakout (Breakout Retest)

Once the price breaks above the psychological $4,000 level, wait for a pullback to retest support at $3,980–$4,000. Upon confirmation of a bounce with increased volume, buy with a stop below $3,950. Target $4,100.

Method 3: Use Fibonacci retracement

Draw Fibonacci retracement from the recent low around $3,500 to the recent high at $4,059. Look for buy entries at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels, which are common reversal zones. Enter when the price touches these levels and shows reversal signals.

Summary: Gold in 2026 still has potential, but timing is key

The overall outlook for 2025–2026 suggests strong support for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs’ target of $4,900 per ounce seeming achievable. For Thai investors, this could mean the possibility of gold bar prices approaching 75,000–80,000 Baht in the future.

However, gold remains a volatile asset. Trade tensions, monetary policies, and geopolitical risks significantly impact prices. Investors should closely monitor news and market conditions, and approach with caution—setting clear targets and stop-loss points will help make gold investment a worthwhile experience.