## Crude Oil Prices Continue to Fall, While US Stocks Rise Against the Trend—This Week’s Financial Market Outlook

**Oversupply Concerns in Crude Oil Emerge, Prices Enter Downward Trajectory**

Progress in peace negotiations of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted market sentiment to pessimism. The US government is actively pushing for Ukraine to reach a peace agreement by the 27th of this month. If negotiations succeed and sanctions on Russia are lifted, it is expected to significantly increase global crude oil supply, further exacerbating the oversupply situation next year. Influenced by these expectations, crude oil prices continued to decline. At the time of press, WTI crude oil fell 0.29% to $57.80 per barrel; Brent crude also came under pressure, dropping 1.41% to $61.64 per barrel. This marks the fourth consecutive trading day of decline in crude oil prices, reflecting market concerns over supply more than optimistic demand expectations.

**Major US Stock Index Futures Rise Across the Board, Tech Stocks Lead the Rally**

Contrasting sharply with the weakness in the crude oil market, US stock futures showed a broad upward trend. Before the opening on November 24, Dow futures rose 0.09%, S&P 500 futures increased to 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 futures led the gains with a rise of 0.52%. Tech stocks performed particularly well, with Google (GOOG) pre-market surging 2.57% to $307.34, hitting a new all-time high; Tesla (TSLA) up 1.83%; and AI chip leader NVIDIA (NVDA) rising 0.49%, indicating continued investor optimism about the tech industry’s prospects.

**Bitcoin Rebounds Short-Term, but Uncertainty Remains for the Future**

The cryptocurrency market experienced a technical rebound after a prior correction. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped to $80,537 last Friday, hitting a nearly seven-month low, but then saw short-term gains from short covering. As of Tuesday’s report, Bitcoin rebounded to around $87.34K. However, market participants remain cautious about the future trend. According to research from options analysis platform Derive, traders are heavily buying put options for risk hedging, indicating that despite the rebound, investors still maintain a defensive stance, and market confidence has not fully recovered.

**Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Gold Prices Ease Downward Pressure**

The Federal Reserve’s subsequent policy signals have positively impacted the commodities market. New York Fed President Williams stated last Friday that there is still room for further rate cuts in the short term, reigniting expectations of easing. Currently, the market assigns a 71.5% probability of a rate cut in December. Amid rising expectations of rate cuts, gold, as a safe-haven asset, has found support, stabilizing after recent declines. As of press, gold was up 0.07% to $4,068 per ounce.

**This Week’s Economic Data Releases Are Dense; Focus on US Inflation Trends**

Next week will see the release of several key economic indicators. The US will announce revised Q3 GDP, October personal income and expenditure, and the closely watched PCE Price Index on November 26. Additionally, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for September will be released on November 25. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and South Korea’s central banks will also announce their interest rate decisions. Note that due to the US Thanksgiving holiday on November 27, the US stock market will be closed, and investors should adjust their trading plans accordingly. The PCE Price Index, as the Federal Reserve’s core inflation indicator, will directly influence market expectations for future rate cuts, making it a key focus.