The BTC bought with money at the beginning of the year has been held without movement, and by the end of the year, it surprisingly lost 8 percentage points. Currently, the price of BTC is around $87,000, compared to $95,000 at the beginning of the year. If I had decisively taken profits when it hit 126,000, the entire year would have been a wasted effort.

There's a statistic that’s quite sobering. From the first trading day of 2025 to now, the return on investing in Bitcoin is -6%, while the return on gold investment is 66.83%, and even the A-shares have gained 20.23%. Easier said than done, making money in the crypto world is indeed difficult, and losing money has become a common phenomenon.

Looking back at history, from 2015 to 2025, Bitcoin has either performed the best or suffered the worst among all investment assets, with no middle ground. According to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory, 2017 and 2021 are both bull market years. The first year after a bull turns into a bear usually sees a significant decline, followed by a slow recovery over the next two years. This year is indeed a bit different; the bull market arrived early, peaking in early October, and declined quickly, dropping 8 percentage points by the end of the year. If we project this pattern, investing in Bitcoin next year might see even larger losses. Of course, history is just a reference; over-interpreting it can lead to the trap of “carving a boat to seek a sword,” so specific situations still need to be analyzed carefully.

More noteworthy is the change at the market capitalization level. Gold prices have continued to rise this year, with market value surpassing $31.424 trillion. There was a time when the market cap difference between Bitcoin and gold was only 12 times; now, that gap has widened to 18 times. Bitcoin has fallen to the eighth position on the global asset ranking, with a market cap of $1.7 trillion, even behind silver’s $4 trillion.

Market cap data fluctuates every year. Whether Bitcoin can truly become the digital gold depends on how time tests it. What we are participating in now is actually an infinite game, with no end point, only experiencing the process itself. When it’s time to realize gains and improve life, don’t hesitate. When it’s necessary to acknowledge investment mistakes, be honest. Then, continue refining your investment approach in the upcoming cycles.