It's still too early to draw conclusions now.

Recently, I've been watching the inflow of funds into exchanges and suddenly had a feeling of déjà vu. This pattern is all too familiar.

Looking back at history, the situations in previous cycles were quite similar: when the market hits a peak, a large amount of capital flows into exchanges, and investors are eager to escape, planning to sell and lock in profits. And often, just at the moment when everyone is firmly convinced "this time has definitely topped out," the supply on exchanges suddenly surges. The logic is clear: a selling wave is coming.

But this time? Completely different.

The price of BTC has risen significantly, market sentiment is tense, and everyone is thinking about whether to run away. Yet, on-chain data appears unusually calm. That kind of capital inflow wave that usually appears at the end of a cycle—simply isn't happening.

It's quite interesting to think about. Two possibilities stand before us.

Either the underlying logic of this bull market has truly changed, and the rules have been rewritten. Or we just haven't reached the final act yet. History tells us that the end of a cycle is usually not marked by weakness and pessimism, but rather by frenzy, greed, and that urgent feeling of "sell quickly and get out." To reach that stage? The prerequisite is to transfer coins to exchanges.

Currently, this action hasn't happened at all.

Holders seem very calm, not in a rush to sell. It’s as if they’re saying: I still plan to hold. The market seems to have more to say, it’s not finished yet.

This isn't a warning signal, nor am I making a prediction; just adding an observational note to the overall situation.

Sometimes, the fifth wave doesn't explode like fireworks, nor does it show obvious signs of madness. Instead, it’s more like—when everyone suddenly realizes that holding on will only make them afraid, the market turns around.

How do you feel about this? Can you sense the tail end of this wave? Or do you have a feeling that "it’s not over yet"?

If you're interested, I can pull up the on-chain performance from previous cycles for comparison and see what really happened at the "top."