Recently released US unemployment insurance claims data has attracted a lot of attention. Last week, initial claims stood at 214,000, well below the expected 224,000 and better than previous figures. At first glance, this is a positive sign, but upon closer inspection, the market's interpretation can easily go astray.

Let's first look at the actual meaning of the data. What does a lower-than-expected unemployment number imply? It indicates that the labor market still shows resilience and that the economy has not experienced a rapid downturn. For the Federal Reserve, this signal is quite clear: there's no need for emergency intervention, but further rate hikes should also be avoided. Considering that the current high interest rates are already exerting sustained pressure on the entire financial system, as long as employment data remains within control, the window for rate cuts is still open—it's only a matter of time.

So, what is the market's first reaction? Not a sell-off, but a recovery in risk asset sentiment. In the crypto space, you will see short-term rebounds, short covering, and capital flowing back in. Many interpret this as confirmed good news. From a short-term trading perspective, this logic makes sense—it is indeed bullish.

The key point is that macroeconomic cycles and current positioning often have a greater influence than a single data point. What stage is the crypto market in now? It’s not the beginning of a bull run, nor the main upward wave, but rather a typical late-stage bear market with repeated oscillations. The characteristic can be summarized in four words: rebounds are easy, sustainability is hard.

Whenever macro data slightly leans dovish, there will be cheers. But how long can such rebounds last? That is probably the real question worth pondering.