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Christmas is approaching, and the entire financial market is also sounding the retreat.
With the arrival of Christmas Eve, global capital markets have clearly chosen a conservative stance. The macro storylines are temporarily sidelined, replaced by two keywords: avoidance and deleveraging. You can clearly feel this cautiousness spreading everywhere.
Where is the money flowing? The most traditional safe-haven asset—gold. Prices have been breaking new historical highs. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields are also falling back, but demand is rising—this signal couldn't be clearer. Conversely, the dollar has recently appeared somewhat powerless.
The story on the stock market side is more straightforward. U.S. stock index futures are weakening, and the VIX index, which measures market fear, is rising again. Even more telling is the decline in the ratio of high-beta to high-quality stocks—indicating investors are actively retreating and seeking safer holdings.
Ultimately, the shrinking time window (U.S. stocks close at 2 a.m. tonight) and geopolitical uncertainties have caused the market to generally hit the brakes. This night is likely to be very quiet, but behind that quietness, there’s a faint sense of defensiveness. Some say it’s a rest period, and perhaps it is—to gather energy for the new year’s market.