2025-12-24 13:22:00

The recent month has indeed been quite interesting for Bitcoin's price movement. From late November to the end of December, the market has experienced significant volatility without a clear directional trend.

Speaking of price performance, in early December, Bitcoin surged to a high of $94,588, but then dropped to $83,822 in early December. The median closing price hovered around $89,330. Such fluctuations reflect an unstable market sentiment among participants.

Even more interesting is the change in trading volume. On December 1st, there was a sudden surge, with trading volume reaching $3.113 billion. By Christmas Eve on the 24th, trading volume shrank to just $436 million. This stark contrast clearly indicates considerable volatility in market sentiment during this period.

From a capital flow perspective, the situation becomes more complex. Over the past month, the majority of trading days saw net capital outflows from Bitcoin. Especially on December 4th, 5th, and from the 11th to the 15th, daily net outflows exceeded $100 million. This suggests the market has been under significant selling pressure.

Long-term holders (those holding for over two years) have been continuously reducing their positions recently, which is considered a key factor driving the price weakness. Even more concerning is that spot ETFs, which were a primary channel for Bitcoin absorption, have recently started experiencing net capital outflows. The combination of these two forces naturally puts pressure on market sentiment.

However, looking at cryptocurrencies alone is not enough. The global macro environment has a substantial impact on this market. Recently released US CPI and PCE data directly influence the Federal Reserve's next policy moves. Any changes in these data points can immediately impact global liquidity expectations and, consequently, the price trends of assets like Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the US stock market has also experienced sharp fluctuations. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded in mid to late December. When risk assets stabilize or rebound, it can sometimes inject positive sentiment into the crypto market or trigger capital rotation between different asset classes.

Overall, this past month in the Bitcoin market has been a game of multiple forces—long-term investors reducing holdings, short-term capital remaining cautious, and macroeconomic uncertainties still prevalent. The market needs new catalysts to reverse this situation; otherwise, the oscillations up and down will likely continue.

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ApeShotFirst

· 8h ago

Damn, it's another net outflow of funds. We're really going to be screwed over as retail investors now. Long-term holders are all fleeing, and I'm still here holding foolishly. Laughing to death. From 3.1 billion to 436 million? This plunge is too brutal, my mentality is collapsing. Still waiting for a catalyst? The current catalyst is just more sharp declines. Even ETFs are starting to flow out. Is this the rhythm of collective dumping? Damn, we're being controlled by macro factors again. I just want to trade a coin properly, why is it so hard? Short-term funds are on hold, long-term are reducing holdings. How are we retail investors supposed to survive? From 94,588 to 83,822, this fluctuation is truly incredible. Retail investors have really been wiped out.

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ParanoiaKing

· 8h ago

Oh no, it's another situation of swinging back and forth, so annoying. The old-timers are selling off, and ETF is starting to bleed, how pessimistic is that? Basically, it's just missing a trigger point; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate. CPI, my friend, needs to make a move quickly; we can't wait any longer. With the macro environment so chaotic, relying on technical analysis is pointless; better to stay on the sidelines. 94k is a pretty strong resistance; it can't even rebound a few times, which is interesting. Over a billion dollars have flowed out; how strong does the buying pressure need to be to withstand that? Long-term investors are all cutting losses; I wonder who is still taking the buy-in. Instead of watching this, it's better to watch the movements of the US stock market, since they all follow the Federal Reserve.

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MaticHoleFiller

· 8h ago

I think this wave is indeed the old hands trapping the new hands. Wait, isn't it just the CPI data that decides everything? Macro is the real boss. From 94k to 83k, a drop of over $10,000, with trading volume shrinking from 3.1 billion to 400 million. This wave is indeed a bit brutal. Are spot ETFs also starting to flow out? Then the big players are really running. Instead of watching Bitcoin, it's better to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's mouth. This is the process of funds searching for direction. Being stuck in a sideways pattern for a month is so annoying. Daily net outflows exceeding 100 million, the pressure is enormous. Long-term holders are all reducing their holdings, indicating that everyone is actually uncertain. When will there be a new catalyst? Right now, we're just being led by the US stock market.

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