US labor market signals to be released today, non-farm payrolls index

2025-12-24 13:19:22

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The September non-farm payrolls, which had been delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, are now scheduled to be released to the market. Since the originally planned announcement on October 3rd was postponed, the data released today is expected to draw significant attention from market participants.

Expected Employment Figures Continue Signals of Labor Market Weakness

The forecast for the September non-farm payrolls is an increase of 50,000 jobs. While this is an improvement compared to August’s 22,000 jobs, it remains relatively weak historically. This is interpreted as a sign that the U.S. labor market is not showing signs of overheating.

Unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.3%. Wage growth is projected to increase by an average of 0.3% per hour, maintaining an annual growth rate of 4.7%.

Shutdown Causes Disruptions in Data Collection

The longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history has disrupted the schedule for data releases. The employment-related statistics for September were originally scheduled to be published earlier last month but have been delayed until now.

More notably, the release of the October non-farm payrolls has been completely canceled. Due to budget allocation issues, the current Census(CSI) household survey data collection has not been conducted during the period through October 2025. This suggests a potential information gap in the market moving forward.

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