When will gold prices drop in 2024? Gold prices surged 40 times in a single year. What is the reason behind this?

Gold Surpasses the $4,000 Psychological Level Anyone who bought since the beginning of the year is now smiling all the way to the bank with instant profits! But if you’re still hesitating, “When will gold drop in 2024?” read this article for the answer. Let’s see how Wall Street and global financial institutions are forecasting gold prices.

Gold as a Major Profit Driver for Investors Since 2024

By October 2024, gold has surged beyond expectations, breaking through the psychological resistance of $4,000 per ounce, and on October 20th, reaching a historic high of $4,181 per ounce.

Since the start of the year, it has risen by 66%, and it took only 7 months to climb from $3,000 to $4,000 — twice as fast as from $2,000 to $3,000.

For 96.5% pure gold bars in Thailand, prices have already surpassed 62,000 THB, forcing experts who targeted 55,000 THB to revise their outlook.

Reasons for the Uptrend: 4 Main Drivers

1. Trade tensions between superpowers

President Trump announced a 100% tariff increase on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2024. This deepening conflict has led investors to rely on gold as the top safe-haven asset.

2. Central banks cut interest rates

The Fed has begun a rate-cut cycle, reducing rates by (-0.25% in September 2024). Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive in other currencies.

3. Central banks worldwide accumulate gold

This is the most significant structural driver. Foreign central banks, (especially emerging markets), buy gold to diversify away from the dollar, purchasing over 1,000 tons/year for three consecutive years, bringing global reserves to 36,699 tons.

4. BRICS group ends reliance on USD

Rumors suggest they are preparing to launch a gold-backed digital currency, directly challenging the US dollar.

Forecast: Wall Street’s Positive Outlook

Goldman Sachs – The most bullish big name
Raised the target from 4,300 to 4,900 dollars per ounce by the end of 2025. The reason is continuous buying from central banks and gold ETFs.

UBS Group – From Switzerland
Forecasts $3,500 by December 2024, citing unprecedented gold purchases by central banks.

For Thai gold prices, if the price reaches 4,900 dollars, Thai gold bars could break through 75,000-80,000 THB in 2025. Although there may be profit-taking along the way, the overall trend remains bullish.

When Will Gold Drop in 2024? Factors That Might Cause a Pullback

If US-China negotiations succeed

Gold prices might temporarily reverse because the main reason for the rally is trade uncertainty.

Profit-taking after a strong rally

Prices have increased for 8 consecutive weeks, RSI is in overbought territory, and investors may start selling to lock in profits.

US dollar strengthens more than expected

If the US economy is stronger than expected and the Fed pauses rate cuts, gold could face downward pressure.

Inflation persists

If inflation does not decrease as usual, the Fed may need to keep interest rates high longer, making gold less attractive.

Technical signals to watch: How to buy at the right moment

Check RSI and MACD

Currently, RSI is in overbought territory. If it drops near 50 or MACD shows a reversal, it signals a pause or correction. If RSI remains high, the trend is still strong.

First support level

$3,859 ( at the start of October) and $3,782. If the price drops to these levels, it’s a good entry point with low risk.

Shooting Star pattern

Sometimes it appears, but in a strong uptrend, a pullback may just be a temporary correction.

3 Practical Strategies to Use Now

1. Buy on dips (Buy the Dip)

The uptrend is strong but rising fast. A temporary correction is natural.

• Wait for the price to drop to $3,850–$3,859
• Confirm with RSI approaching 50 or a positive MACD signal
• Cut losses below $3,750
• Take profit at $4,059 or $4,084–$4,113

2. Test the previous resistance (Breakout Retest)

The price just broke above $4,000, so it may retest this level as new support.

• Wait for a bounce at $3,980–$4,000 with increased trading volume
• Enter when a bullish reversal candlestick appears
• Cut losses at $3,950
• Targets at $4,059 and $4,100

3. Use Fibonacci Retracement

If drawing from $3,500 (the previous low) to $4,059 (the recent high)

• 38.2% and 61.8% levels are key supports
• Buy when the price approaches these levels and shows reversal signals
• Cut losses below the next Fibonacci level

Summary: When Will Gold Drop in 2024? Short Answer

Short-term (current) Gold may pause between $3,800–$4,000 temporarily, with a 3-5% correction expected in the coming weeks.

Medium-term: If US-China trade talks are not positive, gold will continue its upward trend to $4,300–$4,500.

Long-term: In 2025–2026, gold is likely to break through $4,900 as Goldman Sachs predicts.

Key point: If you’re planning to buy gold now, be patient. Don’t rush. Wait for a technical correction before entering. The future target for Thai gold bars could reach 75,000–80,000 THB, but market volatility requires careful timing.