How far is the next bull market for gold? Analyzing the 20-year trend to explore future investment opportunities

What Signals Does the 20-Year Gold Price Trend Imply?

The gold market in 2025 is writing a new chapter in history. From an early-year surge to $2,690 per ounce to a October high of $4,200 per ounce, an increase of over 56%, setting unprecedented records. What does this series of historic highs truly reflect? Will the next 50-year bull market in gold really arrive?

By examining the past 50 years of gold performance, we can observe an interesting pattern: whenever major political or economic crises occur globally, or when monetary policies face difficulties, gold becomes a safe haven for capital. This pattern has been especially evident in the last 20 years.

How Many Times Has Gold Increased Over Half a Century?

Since August 1971, when U.S. President Nixon announced the detachment of the dollar from gold, international gold prices embarked on a long-term upward trajectory. Before that, gold was pegged at $35 per ounce, and the dollar was essentially a gold exchange certificate.

Fast forward to 2025, gold has surged to a historic peak of $4,300 per ounce. Compared to $35 in 1971, this represents an increase of over 120 times. Especially since 2024, global turmoil has intensified, with central banks worldwide increasing gold reserves, providing continuous buying support for gold prices.

Using the same 50-year timeline, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen from around 900 points to approximately 46,000 points, an increase of about 51 times. This indicates that gold’s long-term return has actually surpassed that of global equities, which may come as a surprise to many investors.

The Four Major Upward Cycles in Gold History

To understand future trends, we must review the past. The evolution of gold prices over the past 50+ years can be roughly divided into four distinct upward phases:

1970-1975: The First Wave — Post-Detachment Trust Crisis

After the dollar-gold link was severed, public confidence in paper currency waned, leading to a rush to buy physical gold. Gold prices soared from $35 to $183, an increase of over 400%. The oil crisis triggered the U.S. to flood the market with money to buy oil, fueling a second wave of surge. Only after the crisis eased did gold retreat to around $100.

1976-1980: The Second Wave — Geopolitical Conflicts Fueling the Surge

The second Middle East oil crisis, the Iran hostage crisis, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan—these chain events triggered a global recession and soaring inflation. Gold prices skyrocketed from $104 to $850, an increase of over 700%. However, this exuberance was unsustainable; after the crises subsided and Cold War tensions shifted, gold entered a 20-year low, fluctuating between $200 and $300.

2001-2011: The Third Wave — Anti-Terror War and Financial Crisis

The 9/11 attacks changed the global security landscape. The U.S. launched a decade of anti-terror wars, with massive military spending forcing the federal government to keep interest rates low and issue debt. This led to a housing bubble, which burst in 2008, igniting the financial tsunami. The Fed’s large-scale quantitative easing sparked a decade-long bull market in gold. Prices rose from $260 to $1921, an increase of over 700%. After the European debt crisis in 2011, gold hit a record high at that time.

2015 to Present: Central Bank Gold Buying Worldwide

The past decade’s gold rally has been driven by multiple factors: negative interest rate policies in Japan and Europe, de-dollarization trends globally, the Fed’s renewed QE in 2020, the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts—these have steadily pushed gold above $2,000. In 2024-2025, prices reached unprecedented heights.

Gold Investment vs. Stocks and Bonds: The Logic of Choice

Can gold continue to dominate in the next 50 years? There’s no absolute answer, but comparison can offer insights.

Over the past 50 years, gold increased by 120 times, but the last 30 years tell a different story—stock returns have outperformed, followed by gold, then bonds. This shows that the time window is crucial.

The return mechanisms of these three asset classes are entirely different:

• Gold relies on price differences, offers no interest, and requires timing market movements.
• Bonds depend on coupon payments, and their performance is tied to risk-free interest rates.
• Stocks depend on corporate value appreciation, with the most stable long-term performance.

The difficulty ranking for investing is: bonds easiest > gold next > stocks hardest.

When Should You Buy Gold?

There’s a classic allocation principle in economics: Invest in stocks during economic growth, allocate to gold during recessions.

When the economy is strong, corporate profits rise, stocks tend to increase; bond attractiveness declines; gold, which does not generate yield, is less appealing. Conversely, during economic hardships, stocks falter, but gold’s value-preserving function and bonds’ fixed income become attractive.

Currently, the global situation involves: risky U.S. economic policies, geopolitical instability, and a weakening dollar index. Under these conditions, gold’s appeal is clearly rising.

Gold Investment Is Not Always Steady

A key realization is: Gold’s rise is not smooth. During 1980-2000, gold prices hardly yielded any returns, hovering between $200 and $300. Investing in gold during that period and holding long-term would have been a waste of opportunity.

But that doesn’t mean you should give up on gold. As a natural resource, gold mining costs increase over time, so each downturn’s low point tends to be higher than the previous. This implies that even after a bull run ends, prices won’t fall back to zero.

Five Investment Channels for Gold

If you want to participate in gold markets, there are multiple options:

1. Physical Gold — buying bars or coins, with strong asset privacy but less convenient trading.

2. Gold Certificates — bank-issued custody receipts, more liquid than physical gold, but banks do not pay interest, and buy-sell spreads are large.

3. Gold ETFs — offering better liquidity and trading convenience, but management fees apply, and value may slowly depreciate during sideways markets.

4. Gold Futures/CFDs — suitable for short-term traders seeking to capitalize on market swings, with leverage, low transaction costs, and high capital efficiency.

5. Gold Mining Stocks — indirectly participating in the gold industry’s growth.

Among these, CFDs are most friendly to small investors because they support two-way trading (long and short), flexible leverage, small minimum units, and low entry barriers.

The Future of Gold: Will It Rise Again?

Returning to the initial question—will gold shine again in the next 50 years?

The answer: possibly, but not in a linear fashion. History shows gold experiences phases of rising, high-volatility, decline, and stabilization, then begins a new bull cycle. Successful investors will buy during bull phases and short during downturns, rather than holding blindly long-term.

The current environment points to a fact: central banks worldwide continue to increase gold holdings, geopolitical risks persist, and the dollar faces long-term depreciation pressures. These factors suggest a potential space for the next gold bull market. However, pinpointing the exact top or timing a correction requires close monitoring of macro policies and geopolitical developments.

The safest approach is to dynamically allocate among stocks, bonds, and gold based on individual risk tolerance. This way, you can participate in gold’s upside while hedging against market volatility.