US CPI data suddenly retracted: market turmoil or calm positioning?

These past two days, the financial world has exploded— the U.S. Department of Labor unexpectedly withdrew the October CPI data, instantly triggering a global market frenzy. You might find it hard to believe, but the last time an official such move occurred was nearly twenty years ago. When the CPI data for the U.S., a “compass” for global risk assets, was suddenly retracted, Wall Street immediately plunged into wild speculation, and the volatility in the Crypto market also intensified.

Why is the withdrawal of CPI data more explosive than a rate hike?

What does inflation data mean for the market? Simply put, CPI directly determines the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. High inflation expectations lead to anticipation of rate hikes, causing risk assets to fall; low inflation expectations bring expectations of rate cuts, pushing asset prices higher. Now that the U.S. CPI data has been suddenly withdrawn, it’s akin to turning off the market’s “navigation system,” leaving investors in confusion.

Three possible reasons behind the data withdrawal

The data may be far below expectations, with decision-makers controlling the pace

According to industry rumors, the October YoY CPI growth rate may fall below 3%, well below the market expectation of 3.3%. Once such data is released, it will inevitably trigger expectations of an “early rate cut,” potentially causing U.S. stocks to gap higher and Bitcoin to surge to new highs. But the Fed fears excessive market rally spiraling out of control, so they simply suppress the data first, releasing it after market sentiment stabilizes.

The data shows obvious deviations, and the revised figures are likely even lower

Looking back at 2021, the employment data withdrawn by the Department of Labor was clearly illogical, and revisions were made downward. The historical similarity is astonishing: such “technical withdrawals” often accompany downward revisions, and the final inflation figures tend to be lower than initial releases. This implies that a rate cut is already a done deal, injecting “super fuel” into risk assets.

Institutions are waiting to complete their positions, and the withdrawal has bought them buffer time

Currently, it is a sensitive period for institutional rebalancing. Many major players’ Bitcoin positions are still not fully established. If the favorable CPI data is released directly, BTC could spike instantly, causing institutions to miss the chance to accumulate at low prices. The withdrawal of data is like silently “buying time” for large funds—once their positions are adjusted, the revised CPI release will be the moment for coordinated market rally.

Probable market development directions

Based on market experience over the past twenty years, there are several high-probability development paths:

• The withdrawal of U.S. CPI data essentially signals rising expectations of rate cuts, confirming the downward trend of inflation
• The Fed entering a rate-cutting cycle is inevitable, and the “upward wave” in the Crypto market is brewing
• The real major rally for Bitcoin will be triggered on the day the “revised CPI” is announced; now is the last window for intervention

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $89.02K, at a critical juncture. Over the next week, the market will enter a “high-sensitivity period.” Investors should avoid chasing gains or selling in panic, hold onto quality positions, and wait quietly for the revised data to be released— that could be the moment to witness Bitcoin’s new high.