Reasons Why the 150-Year Economic Chart Is Gaining Attention Again: Can the Kondratiev Cycle Serve as a Leading Indicator for the Crypto Market

In the world of investing, those who can read the “next move” are always the winners. Especially in unstable market environments, interest in historical data and predictive models rapidly increases. Recently, the Benners cycle has been gaining renewed attention among retail investors. This chart has come to mean more than just a tool for economic analysis.

What is the Benners Cycle: Market Prediction Born from Agricultural Experience

The story of Samuel Benner begins with the financial crisis of 1873. As a farmer, he experienced significant losses, which led him to immerse himself in studying market patterns. In 1875, he published a work titled “Business Predictions Regarding Future Price Fluctuations,” introducing the concept of the Benner Cycle to the world.

Interestingly, this cycle is not based on complex mathematical formulas but on empirical rules observed by Benner through the price movements of agricultural products. He believed that solar activity affected crop productivity, which in turn caused fluctuations in agricultural prices. At the time of this discovery, Benner left a note titled “Absolute Certainty,” and nearly 200 years later, that note is once again capturing investors’ interest.

The Three Market Phases Indicated by the Chart

The Benner Cycle chart identifies three different stages of the market:

• Line A: Indicates the period when panic occurs
• Line B: Suggests a boom phase suitable for asset selling
• Line C: Emphasizes a recession period optimal for buying and accumulating assets

Benner’s predictions are mapped out until 2059, and it is intriguing that even today, with dramatic advances in agricultural technology, these indicators continue to attract attention.

Proven Track Record of Accurate Predictions at Turning Points in History

The renewed trust in the Benner Cycle is backed by its past “success stories.” Many market observers, including Panos, point out that this chart has predicted major financial events—such as the Great Depression of 1929, World War II, the dot-com bubble, and the COVID-19 pandemic market crashes—with only a few years of margin of error.

According to analysis by Wealth Management Canada, the Benner Cycle is not a tool for precise annual predictions but shows a significant correlation with major market events.

Optimistic Scenario for 2026 Spreading in the Market

Currently, a widely shared scenario among retail investors is that 2026 will be the next major market peak. In Panos’s view, 2023 is the best year to buy, with 2026 being the ideal time to sell.

Investor mikewho.eth predicts that, based on the peak suggested by this chart around 2025 to 2026, speculative fervor in emerging sectors like cryptocurrencies and AI will accelerate from 2024 to 2025, followed by a correction phase. This has led to a psychological trend among retail investors that “next year or the year after is the last chance.”

Recent Market Fluctuations Challenging the Chart’s Reliability

However, the trust in the Benner Cycle faces a significant test due to recent economic developments.

Looking at market trends in early April, global markets reacted sharply following the announcement of new protectionist policies. The decline on April 7th was so notable that some observers called it “Black Monday,” with the total value of the crypto market shrinking rapidly from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion on that day.

Further concerns are mounting. JPMorgan raised the probability of a global recession in 2025 to 60%, and Goldman Sachs revised their forecast for a recession within the next 12 months to 45%. These figures are at their highest post-pandemic levels.

Veteran Skepticism and Contrasting Views

Experienced trader Peter Blunt warns against over-reliance on this chart. He commented on social media, “I don’t know how much trust to put in this chart. I should focus only on my trading entries and exits. Charts like this can be distracting,” casting doubt on the effectiveness of buy/sell decisions based on the Benner Cycle.

How Market Psychology Turns Predictions into Reality

Nevertheless, investor Klinet offers an interesting perspective. He points out that despite conflicting signals—recession fears versus optimistic predictions from the Benner Cycle—many investors continue to believe in this chart because the market is driven by more than just numbers.

“The market moves on emotions, memories, and impulses. The reason old charts work is not their magic but because many people believe in them,” he comments, capturing the essence of the Benner Cycle’s influence. In other words, the scientific accuracy of the chart is less important than the self-fulfilling potential driven by collective psychology.

Search Trends Indicating High Investor Interest

According to Google Trends data, searches for Benner Cycle peaked last month. This reflects that, amid economic instability and rising political tensions, retail investors are increasingly seeking optimistic market scenarios. The narrative that the crypto market will rise into 2026 seems to serve as psychological support for many investors.

Currently, how to evaluate the Benner Cycle in investment strategy remains a matter of individual judgment.