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📍 The upcoming week is noteworthy: the US employment report and CPI will be released
📌 The market is awaiting the US November employment report and CPI — perhaps the final two pieces closing out 2025 before the Fed makes decisions early in the new year. The employment report will include a portion of October due to the US government shutdown.
📌 Market expectations are currently modest regarding economic data:
- NFP is forecasted to increase by only +30K to +50K, significantly lower than the average of previous months.
- Unemployment rate around 4.3% ( remains high ).
- Wage growth continues, not enough to create inflationary pressure.
📌 Regarding CPI, forecasts lean toward the scenario:
- Headline CPI slightly increases MoM.
- Core CPI continues to slow both MoM and YoY.
->This week's data will guide expectations for January 2026 on whether the disinflation trend is truly sustainable. US bonds are reflecting this tug-of-war clearly.