12.9 BTC Afternoon Market Analysis

I. Core Logic Support
1. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates tonight (89.6% probability), providing a market floor; investors are cautious ahead of the decision.
2. Institutional ETF net inflows and whale accumulation; strong support at $89,000-$89,500 with limited selling pressure.
3. Technicals: Oscillating between $89,000-$92,300; 1-hour converging triangle awaits breakout; moving averages and Fibonacci levels form key support and resistance.
II. Trend Assessment
Range-bound and neutral; from 12:00 to 16:30, the price is likely to fluctuate between $89,500-$91,500 with no clear trend. Volume is needed to confirm direction.
III. Operational Strategies
1. Long Positions (Main Direction)
- Conservative long: Enter in batches at $89,500-$90,000, stop loss at $88,800, target $91,000-$91,500;
- Breakout long: Enter after a breakout above $92,300 with five-minute confirmation and increased volume, stop loss at $91,800, target $93,000.
2. Short Positions (Supplementary)
- Conservative short: Enter at resistance between $91,500-$92,000, stop loss at $92,500, target $90,000-$89,800;
- Breakout short: Enter after breaking below $89,500 with weak rebound, stop loss at $90,000, target $88,500-$88,000.
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