Is the market dead? The triple dilemma of alts, MEME, and CEX, and the last hope for on-chain innovation.

These past few days I've been immersing myself in the x402 track, and when I woke up this morning and checked the market—I'm stunned.

I have a lot to say, and it's frustrating not to say it.

The market has cooled down early.

Stop deceiving yourself. After that wave of TRUMP, liquidity has basically bottomed out. Those small rebounds afterwards? They are purely emotions holding the fort, and will burst with just a poke.

The Death Spiral of Altcoins

The current clones are already in debt on the day of TGE. What happened to those long-term holders who stubbornly held onto their beliefs? They're gone. The contributors who toiled hard? They've run away.

The current situation is: airdrop hunters are cashing out madly, venture capitalists are eager to exit, exchanges are happily raking in profits, and project teams that have been holding back for years just want to make a quick buck—everyone is looking for an exit, but the question is who will take over?

The Disillusionment of MEME

At first, everyone regarded MEME as the savior, believing it could counter those VC coins with high FDV. Indeed, it accomplished its mission in the short term.

However, zero threshold, assembly line replication, and so-called “fair launch” cannot become long-term value carriers.

Without the narrative of technological innovation from 0 to 1 of VC coins, MEME is purely a game of existing stock. By the end of PVP, the entire industry has been completely eroded.

The Lost Exchange

The role of an exchange is quite clear: to capture the spillover effects of on-chain innovations and amplify liquidity.

As soon as platforms like Pumpfun, GMGN, and Hyperliquid emerged, the wealth effect was too strong, and exchanges panicked, starting to engage in “internal market” self-rescue.

The one selling shovels starts to do alchemy themselves, how can the prospectors survive? The meaning of the entire ecosystem has been hollowed out.

The Darkest Hour of Builders

The project team is really having a hard time now.

Why are so many projects rushing for TGE? Why has the market lost patience in polishing products? Why are all the blame and responsibilities being shifted to project teams and VCs?

This problem is too complex; no one can provide a standard answer. But the fact is clear: Builders and VCs in the crypto space are going bankrupt and fleeing on a large scale.

More terrifying than a liquidation is when the entire industry is undermined, leaving nothing but empty buildings.

Writing too much feels like complaining.

But this is why I have been emphasizing on-chain innovation—our industry is no longer the same as it was back in the day.

It is sick, old, and even close to dying.

Only a single true on-chain narrative driven by technological innovation from scratch can possibly reorganize all of this.