At 21:30 tonight, the U.S. retail sales monthly rate and PPI, two key data points, will be released with great significance! The market's expected combination of "moderate economic growth + continued decline in inflation" is likely to further strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, providing a crucial catalyst for risk assets. The detailed interpretation is as follows:

1. Retail sales show resilience: U.S. core retail sales in September (excluding automobiles, gasoline, and dining) fell by 0.49% month-on-month, and retail data excluding automobiles and gasoline decreased by 0.66%, both significantly below the 0.6% growth expectation. This performance is not indicative of weak consumption, but rather that consumers are actively "recharging" after concentrated spending during the back-to-school season, preparing their purchasing power for the year-end holiday shopping season, with subsequent consumption momentum still supported.
2. PPI cooling confirms inflation retreat: In September, the core PPI month-on-month rate turned negative to -0.1% (in line with market expectations), and the year-on-year rate dropped from 3.1% to 2.6%, indicating a significant alleviation of price pressures at the producer level. This signal suggests that subsequent inflation at the consumption level is likely to further converge towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, providing more room for monetary policy easing.

The current market is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut direction in December. Although there are differences within the FOMC, the combination of "moderate economy + cooling inflation" aligns perfectly with the core logic of policy easing, which will effectively alleviate concerns about the persistence of high interest rates and significantly boost expectations for rate cuts. Historical data shows that weak PPI often drives cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to strengthen, while also benefiting risk assets such as U.S. stocks—previously, when the August PPI data fell short of expectations, Bitcoin quickly broke through $114,000. #非农数据超预期 #反弹币种推荐 #比特币行情观察