Cautious sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is rising: signals from the Federal Reserve and employment data become short-term key variables.

Federal Reserve officials are intensively speaking out, and the absence of core employment data is creating a fog of policies and data in the current cryptocurrency market. On October 23, Bowman testified on financial regulatory oversight, and Barr focused on community investment in his speech. Although neither directly mentioned the cryptocurrency sector, any statements regarding the stability of the financial system could potentially affect market sentiment against the backdrop of a continuously clarifying regulatory framework.

The current market focus is more on the upcoming initial jobless claims data for the week ending October 18 in the United States. The previous value was 219,000, and if there is a significant upward movement, it will strengthen the judgment of "rising risks of employment downturn," thereby alleviating market concerns about the persistence of high interest rates and opening a liquidity expectation window for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The signal mentioned earlier by Powell regarding "the balance sheet reduction possibly ending in the coming months" has already driven the volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum to rise, and the trend of employment data will directly validate the reasonableness of this liquidity turning point expectation.

For the cryptocurrency market, the short-term trend is at the intersection of policy sensitivity and a data vacuum. On one hand, the signal recently released by Federal Reserve's Waller to "embrace DeFi and innovations in crypto payments" is still fermenting, and measures like simplified main accounts are paving the way for industry compliance; on the other hand, the delayed release of initial jobless claims data has postponed the clarity of market direction, leading mainstream coins to be temporarily trapped in narrow fluctuations. Funds are more inclined to track institutional movements through on-chain tools, and the inflow trend in segmented tracks like RWA is worth paying attention to. Going forward, it is essential to closely monitor the employment data release and whether there are new trends in crypto regulation hidden in officials' speeches, as these two variables will jointly determine the breakout direction of the short-term market. #十月加密市场预测