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Based on the market dynamics as of April 20, 2025, and the real-time price of Ethereum (ETH), combined with technical analysis and on-chain data, the following trading strategy is formulated.
Core Strategy and Points
1. Buy on support rebound
- Entry conditions: Price falls back to the range of 1,550-1,580 USD and stabilizes (strong daily support, tested multiple times recently), along with an increase in hourly trading volume or a bullish divergence signal.
- Target: First target 1,620-1,650 USD (EMA15 resistance zone), looking towards 1,680 USD after breaking through.
- Stop-loss: Strictly set below $1,530, with risk control within 3%.
2. Breakthrough to Long
- Entry conditions: If the price stabilizes at $1,650 (4-hour Bollinger Band middle band resistance), a 4-hour close is required to confirm a valid breakout, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate must stop falling and rebound.
- Target: Short-term look towards $1,700-1,720 (previous high resistance zone), after breaking through look to $1,750.
- Stop loss: dynamically move up to below $1,620 to protect profits.
3. Resistance level short selling
- Entry conditions: Price rebounds to the $1,680-$1,700 area and encounters resistance, showing signs of stagnation (such as a 4-hour KDJ death cross, long upper shadow, or false breakthrough).
- Target: Retrace to $1,620-$1,650, if broken, look for $1,580.
- Stop-loss: Set above $1,730 to avoid the risk of trend reversal.
Market risks and correlated factors
- Technical pressure: The daily EMA15 continues to decline to $1,645, with the upper Bollinger Band capped at $1,678. The short-term trend is bearish, and caution is needed for false breakouts.
- BTC correlation: If Bitcoin falls below the psychological threshold of $80,000, it may drag ETH down; conversely, if it breaks through $85,000, it could drive ETH to rise in tandem.
- On-chain risk: The current price of ETH is approaching the maximum pain point of $1,600 for options, which may trigger severe short-term volatility; if it falls below $1,580, it could trigger over $336 million in liquidations, exacerbating selling pressure. #WCTC S7 报名开启 #Gate.io 12周年 #创作者激励计划，发帖瓜分$2,000 #BTC #PI