BlockBeats News, January 16 — The market is entering a new phase dominated by policy signals, as the four-year cycle model of Bitcoin, long considered the core narrative, is weakening. Analysts point out that the influence of politics and macro policies on prices is gradually surpassing on-chain factors such as halving events.
Although the US stock market is expected to perform strongly in 2025, Bitcoin's performance has been relatively lagging, reflecting that the market is more driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing rather than overall risk appetite. Under traditional models, the cycle should be entering its late stage in early 2026, but current trends indicate investors are delaying this phase, with policy factors taking the lead.
Institutional analysts believe that pre-election fiscal stimulus and the blurred boundaries between fiscal and monetary policies are creating an environment similar to “financial repression.” In the context of high government spending and suppressed real interest rates, traditional bonds and credit become less attractive, increasing the appeal of digital assets.
Looking ahead to 2026, the market generally believes that Bitcoin's trajectory will depend more on policy directions and regulatory developments, especially the US crypto market structure legislation. Analysts note that institutional demand driven by ETFs remains a long-term support, but policy changes will determine whether institutional funds further enter the market.
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