In traditional financial markets, prices generally reflect participants' expectations for the future. Prediction markets take this further by converting "judgments about future events" into tradable market data. With advancements in blockchain technology, prediction markets are moving from centralized platforms to on-chain structures, allowing users to directly influence event probabilities through transparent transaction records, automated settlement, and decentralized infrastructure. TxFlow L1's latest release, Probly, is an on-chain prediction market application built on this principle. As the second Channel in the TxFlow ecosystem, Probly further expands its multi-application financial landscape.
What Is Probly?
(Source: Probly)
Probly is a prediction market application built on TxFlow L1 and the first market application launched under the TxFlow Improvement Protocol 3 (TIP3) standard. The platform's name is derived from "probably," reflecting the uncertainty of future events. Users express their views on the likelihood of events through market actions. In essence, Probly transforms users' expectations for future events into market signals, enabling diverse perspectives to shape observable probability data via on-chain transactions.
The Relationship Between TxFlow L1 and Probly
(Source: TxFlow_L1)
TxFlow L1 is a Layer 1 blockchain purpose-built for on-chain financial applications. Its core design centers around the TxFlow Improvement Protocol (TIP) standard, which enables multiple financial applications to operate on a unified blockchain, sharing execution and settlement infrastructure.
Currently, the TxFlow ecosystem includes:
- TxFlow DEX: The first Channel, offering perpetual contract trading with a central limit order book (CLOB).
- Probly: The second Channel, dedicated to prediction markets.
With this Channel architecture, TxFlow L1 aims to create an on-chain financial environment where a variety of financial applications can operate in tandem.
What Is TIP3? The Dedicated Prediction Market Standard
The TxFlow Improvement Protocol (TIP) is a standardized framework for defining how financial products are created and interconnected.
Key elements:
TIP1: Supports spot markets
TIP2: Supports derivatives markets
TIP3: Designed specifically for prediction markets
TIPn: Will support additional financial products in the future
TIP3 allows prediction market applications to connect directly to TxFlow L1's execution, settlement, and shared liquidity framework, eliminating the need to build separate infrastructure.
How Does Probly Work?
Probly uses an on-chain settlement model, with market transactions and results permanently recorded on the blockchain for full transparency. The platform's main processes include:
Creating Event Markets
Users can browse various types of prediction events, including cryptocurrency price movements, sports outcomes, political events, financial market trends, and geopolitical developments. Participants leverage their own judgment to engage in these markets, turning diverse viewpoints into real-time probability signals.
Automated Settlement
Event outcomes are determined by designated Oracle sources. Events with automatic price feeds are settled immediately, while manually judged events are settled within 24 to 72 hours. Once results are finalized, eligible users automatically receive USDC settlements—no additional claims are required.
What Features Does Probly Offer?
At launch, Probly delivers a wide range of event markets across multiple categories. The platform features 172 real-time event pages, 15 event categories, trend exploration tools, high-activity event tracking, and browsing for soon-to-close events. In addition, a simple voting feature allows users to quickly engage with trending topics.
Real-Time Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets
Beyond general event markets, Probly offers short-term cryptocurrency price predictions, currently supporting BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP. Users can access real-time price data, countdowns, and automatically updated market rounds. The platform provides five-minute, fifteen-minute, one-hour, and four-hour timeframes, allowing users to observe how market expectations evolve over time.
How Does Probly Lower the Barrier to Entry?
To encourage broader participation, Probly supports multiple login methods. Users can create an embedded wallet via email, eliminating the need to manage seed phrases or connect external wallets like MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, Phantom, or Uniswap Wallet. The platform also features an integrated account dashboard for easy access to trading activity, history, and active events.
How Do On-Chain Prediction Markets Differ from Traditional Models?
Several platforms, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, already operate in the prediction market space. What sets Probly apart is that it runs directly on TxFlow L1—a blockchain purpose-built for on-chain finance—rather than a general-purpose blockchain. This ensures that market transactions are executed on-chain, settlement records are fully transparent, USDC distributions are automated, and financial infrastructure is shared across the TxFlow ecosystem. By leveraging the TIP3 standard, Probly integrates prediction markets into TxFlow L1's broader financial application framework.
TxFlow L1's Future Roadmap
TxFlow L1 aims to create an open, composable on-chain financial ecosystem. With the TIP standard and Channel architecture, a variety of financial products—including spot, derivatives, prediction markets, and future innovations—can be built on the same foundation. According to the official team, new applications will further enhance the ecosystem as they are added.
Summary
Probly is TxFlow L1's second Channel and the first on-chain prediction market application built on the TIP3 standard. Through on-chain trading, transparent settlement, and automated USDC distribution, Probly aims to turn participants' views on future events into real-time, verifiable probability data. As blockchain-based financial applications continue to grow, prediction markets are becoming a key direction for on-chain finance. By adopting the TIP standard and a multi-application framework, TxFlow L1 is building a next-generation on-chain financial ecosystem that supports seamless integration of diverse financial products.
FAQ
Q1: What is Probly?
Probly is an on-chain prediction market application built on TxFlow L1, enabling users to express their views on the probability of future events through trading mechanisms and converting market participation into observable probability data.
Q2: What role does the TIP3 standard play in TxFlow L1?
TIP3 is the dedicated prediction market standard within the TxFlow Improvement Protocol, allowing Probly to leverage TxFlow L1's execution, settlement, and shared liquidity infrastructure without developing standalone systems.
Q3: How does Probly settle event results?
Probly uses designated Oracle sources to determine event outcomes. Once results are verified, USDC settlements are processed automatically, and eligible users receive distributions without any additional action required.
