Pejabat Federal Reserve memperingatkan: Inflasi energi yang berkelanjutan, ditambah dengan proyeksi produktivitas AI, mungkin memaksa bank sentral menaikkan suku bunga

Federal Reserve Chair of Chicago, Austan Goolsby, stated on May 28 that the energy inflation triggered by the Iran war has lasted longer than expected, causing stagflationary shocks to Asian economies, while warning that rising productivity expectations from AI combined with rising oil prices may force central banks to raise interest rates.
（Background: Draft peace agreement between the US and Iran leaked! US troops withdraw in exchange for lifting the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude oil to plummet below $89）
（Additional context: Oil prices rise, ETH falls! Tom Lee: Ethereum’s negative correlation with oil prices hits a record high）

On May 28, Goolsby of the Federal Reserve stated at the Bank of Japan - Japan Institute of Financial Research conference that the energy inflation related to the Iran war has lasted longer than expected, impacting Asian economies with stagflationary shocks. He mentioned that initial futures market forecasts believed energy prices would be well below current levels, but the actual trend far exceeded market expectations.

Although recent progress in US-Iran peace negotiations has caused oil prices to retreat, prices remain significantly above pre-war levels. Goolsby also issued a warning regarding Asian economies, stating that since these economies rely on energy imports, this shock is more akin to a traditional stagflationary impact.

The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates

On the same day, Goolsby further reinforced the warning: market expectations for AI-driven productivity gains continue to heat up, which could push up inflation and force the Fed and other central banks to raise rates.

He stated that the more intense the speculation about future productivity, the higher interest rates may need to be to prevent the economy from overheating. More importantly, in the short term, facing supply shocks—whether from oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors—will make the problems even more severe.

The above comments further expand on Goolsby’s earlier public views this month. He questioned the idea that AI could suppress inflation and create space for rate cuts, a view favored by many officials in the Trump administration and the new Fed Chair Jeremy Wash.

Market theory shifts toward preemptive spending inflation

Goolsby believes that if productivity improvements are expected by the market, the actual situation may differ. The market might preemptively boost spending, driving up prices before the actual productivity gains materialize. This is different from the experience in the 1990s US, when widespread computer adoption unexpectedly boosted productivity, and market expectations did not anticipate this growth, thus avoiding inflation.

Taiwan, as a major energy importer, also faces energy inflation pressures. Goolsby’s warning implies that if oil prices remain high, Taiwan’s inflation could last longer than expected, squeezing the space for the central bank to cut rates. At the same time, as AI industry is a growth driver for Taiwan’s economy, if productivity expectations are already reflected in the market and prices are preemptively rising, Taiwan could face similar stagflation risks.

As US-Iran peace negotiations continue, markets should closely monitor whether the supply shocks Goolsby mentioned will persist into the third quarter, which will influence the policy paths of global central banks.