#比特币2026年行情展望 The old 5-year debt of the Federal Reserve is now just being exposed.

The minutes of the September 2020 meeting released last week frankly revealed — Powell at that time firmly stated that as long as employment and inflation do not meet the targets, there will be no rate hikes. Zero interest rate? Just give it until 2023.

This single statement later became the starting point of the entire market’s nightmare.

What was the situation back then? Inflation was only 1.3%, looking stable. But by 2022, that number directly exploded to over 7%. The Federal Reserve was stuck by its own words, delaying rate hikes again and again, until March 2022 when they finally started to act. By then, it was already too late; the best window for regulation had long closed. Even former economic advisors said the Fed had a serious “inflation bias.”

Now it’s March 2025, and the situation is still somewhat stuck. In the latest Fed forecast, the median PCE inflation is pegged at 2.7%, still above the 2% target. This delayed “historical debt” could very likely make their path of rate cuts in 2026 even more difficult. Neither advancing nor retreating.

For crypto market players, this directly relates to the flow of money. When macro policies shift, the crypto market often reacts with three shocks. The aggressive rate hikes in 2022 directly cut the market in half. If in 2026 the Fed continues to sway left and right, policy uncertainty will only grow, which might instead become a fuse. Some analysts believe there is a “risk liquidation window” in the second half of the year.

The question is: run or wait?

As people in traditional finance become increasingly uncertain, will capital start seeking alternative directions? Will the crypto market instead seize opportunities from policy chaos? Can assets with strong consensus support uphold new narratives? No one can say for sure.

The debt of history, in the end, still has to be paid by everyone together. $BTC $ETH