#美联储降息预期 The Federal Reserve's rate cut has been implemented, and the dovish signals are indeed clear, but how much energy does this wave of market movement have to follow? After reviewing these two analytical reports, my judgment is: the pricing is already sufficient, and the reversal potential is limited.

First, let's discuss the current situation. After BTC retraced to 80,000, it indeed stabilized above two moving averages, with the 200-day moving average turning positive, and short-term indicators showing a rebound in bullish momentum. These technical signals are real and tangible. But the problem is that the market's expectations for the Fed's rate cut have already been largely digested; this is not new positive news, but a "boots landing" event—an already known event.

The key obstacle is liquidity. As Christmas and settlement deadlines approach at the end of the year, this period has always been the "death gate" for the crypto market. Options data shows that by the end of December, over 50% of positions are accumulated, with BTC's biggest pain point firmly at the 100,000 integer level, and ETH stuck at 3200. The implied volatility for the entire month has been declining across the board, indicating that market expectations for volatility are waning. What does this mean? Traders are watching cautiously, large investors are pulling back.

A slow decline is currently the mainstream consensus in the options market, unless there is a sudden positive catalyst to reverse it. Therefore, my current follow strategy is adjusted as follows:

1. Temporarily reduce the intensity of following aggressive traders, as they are more likely to be trapped by liquidity traps during this period.

2. Prioritize those with strong risk management capabilities and who can set range trades at key levels; they are better suited for this kind of "lack of primary upward momentum" market.

3. Maintain an observational stance, and once a genuine volume breakthrough occurs—not a false breakout—then add leverage to follow up.

This round of market movement is not without opportunities; the key is how to precisely position oneself in low liquidity conditions, rather than blindly betting on a market restart. Experience has shown me that in uncertain environments, the most valuable thing is often the wisdom of "doing nothing."