I noticed an interesting analysis at Token 2049 in October — Zoltán Pozsar shared a thought that is becoming increasingly relevant. The economic world is clearly transforming, and we're not just talking about market fluctuations but about a fundamental restructuring of the system.

Pozsar noted that the global economy is moving toward decentralization. It's evident how two main poles are forming — roughly speaking, the West and the East. At the same time, the U.S. is changing its role: instead of being a traditional consumption center, it is shifting toward production. This undermines the old order where the dollar was the absolute anchor. It's interesting to observe how this reorientation affects allies.

Europe, in his assessment, is in a difficult position — investments in infrastructure and defense are clearly insufficient, and U.S. interest rate policies are creating short-term difficulties. Asian economies like Japan and South Korea are facing even more serious pressure: high interest rates plus trade restrictions, resulting in stressed currency and asset markets. Developing countries have long been experiencing chronic inflation, devaluation, and capital outflow threats.

What’s interesting about Zoltán Pozsar’s stance — he does not believe in the long-term dominance of the dollar, despite its current support. Yes, in the short term, the U.S. maintains its course through redistribution of burden onto partners and through stablecoins, but this is a temporary solution.

When asked where to invest in such a situation, Pozsar directly says: gold. The classic safe-haven asset, which rises as trust in fiat currencies erodes. Bitcoin, of course, has its advantages as an alternative store of value, but its volatility and regulatory risks currently prevent it from becoming a mass savings instrument.

As for U.S. Treasury bonds — yes, demand is holding up for now, but Pozsar warns: long-term risks must be watched. When allies start losing interest in buying, the situation could change dramatically. This is not panic; it’s simply a sober view of economic reality.