Bitcoin Oversold Rebound Verification: The Rebound Is Not a Reversal | Special Analysis

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Key Points:

• Deep analysis of HYPE multi-cycle trend structure: weekly tracking. (Detailed in Part One)

• Validation of BTC short-term strategy execution: Last week, Bitcoin followed the established short-term strategy, completing one short position (1x leverage), achieving a profit of approximately 6.41%. (See Table One)

• Validation of BTC medium-term strategy: Last week, Bitcoin continued to hold a short position built at around $89,000 (1x leverage), closing the week at approximately $65,971, with a profit of about 25.88%, and a maximum profit during the period of 32.58%.

• Short-term core view validation: Bitcoin maintained a weak sideways oscillation last week. The current trend aligns with expectations.

• This week’s market outlook and medium- and short-term trading strategies.

The following will review market predictions, strategy execution, and specific trading processes in detail.

1. HYPE Multi-Cycle Trend Structure Analysis and Short-Term Trading Review:

HYPE Daily K Chart

Figure 1

In our weekly review on February 22, we first highlighted the investment opportunity in HYPE, clearly indicating the potential for a major upward (Wave III) trend. On March 1, we reiterated: the February 24 low at $25.60 might be the start point of Wave III, which is currently underway.

1. Major trend structure analysis (see Figure 1): (Based on market evolution after January 21)

• Wave I (Driving Wave): from the January 21 low of $20.46 to the February 3 high of $38.41, lasting 14 days, with a maximum increase of 87.73%.

• Wave II (Correction Wave): from the February 3 high of $38.41 to the February 24 low of $25.60, lasting 20 days, with a maximum decline of 33.35%.

• Wave III (Potential Driving Wave): from the February 24 low of $25.60 to present, ongoing, 13 days so far, with a maximum rise of 31.5%.

• From moving average analysis: since the February 24 rally, the price has effectively broken through multiple moving average resistances, currently testing key medium-term moving averages (such as the 21-day MA) to assess support strength after breakout. Volume shows a healthy pattern of “rising volume on upward moves, decreasing volume on pullbacks,” with good volume-price coordination.

• From momentum quantification model: daily momentum remains above zero, indicating a clear bullish trend. The current trend is in a phase of momentum accumulation and consolidation.

2. Small-Scale Trend Structure Analysis (based on market after March 2):

HYPE 1-Hour K Chart

Figure 2

As shown in Figure 2, the rally launched from the February 24 low at $25.60 reached a high of $33.69 on March 2, then entered a correction phase. We will analyze the 1-hour trend structure to identify signals of the correction’s end and potential turning points.

• Internal structure segmentation: (from March 2 high of $33.69 to present)

Divided into 5 segments: 9-10, 10-11, 11-12, 12-13, 13-14, forming a complete correction pattern.

• Central structure: segments 9-10 are the initial phase, 13-14 are the exit phase, with segments 10-11, 11-12, 12-13 forming the central zone.

• Formation and validation of reversal signals: as shown in Figure 2, the initial and exit segments have already shown divergence signals, suggesting the correction may end near point 12. If the upward move from point 12 successfully breaks above $31.50 resistance and then surpasses the local high of $32.75, the correction is likely over, and a new rally could begin. (Note: subsequent corrections should not fall below the price at point 12 (~$29.44), or the conclusion may shift, and the correction’s turning point will be delayed.)

3. HYPE Upside Risk Warning: While HYPE’s trend has some independence, it still cannot be completely detached from Bitcoin’s overall environment. If Bitcoin continues to weaken and breaks key support levels (around $65,000), it could intensify selling pressure across altcoins, impacting HYPE’s rebound momentum.

4. HYPE Short-Term Trading Review (1x leverage): (03.02–03.08)

We forecasted that HYPE’s daily trend remains upward. Last week, following the core trading principle of “trading with the trend” and based on hourly correction structure analysis, we did not open new long positions during this period.

2. Bitcoin Last Week’s Trading Strategy and Key Level Review (03.02–03.08):

3. Short-term Trading Strategy Review: (see Table One)

We strictly followed our self-developed spread trading model and momentum quantification signals, combined with market trend forecasts, executing one short position last week with a profit of 6.41%.

① Summary of Bitcoin short-term trades: (1x leverage)

Table One

② Short-term trade review: (see Figure 3)

• Entry: Rejected at the key resistance near $74,500 during a rebound, with the spread trading model triggering a top warning (green dot). Combined with two major model signals, a 30% short position was established at $72,760.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss set above $75,500.

• Exit: Closed all positions near $68,000 after the price fell, with the spread model triggering a bottom warning (red dot) at about $68,095.

• Summary: this trade yielded a profit of 6.41%.

Bitcoin 60-Minute K Chart: (Momentum + Spread Trading Models)

Figure 3 (Short-term Trading Illustration)

3. Medium-term Strategy Review:

Maintained holding 60% short position built around $89,000 (established on January 28). As of last week’s close (~$65,971), profit was approximately 25.88%.

3. Bitcoin Technical Indicator Analysis

Using our proprietary trading system, from multiple models and dimensions, we analyze Bitcoin’s technical indicators in depth.

1. Weekly Level Analysis (see Figure 4):

Bitcoin Weekly K Chart: (Momentum + Sentiment Quantification Models)

Figure 4

• Momentum Model: indicators show momentum line trending downward, negative energy bars shrinking, no divergence signals.

• Sentiment Model: blue sentiment line at 23, strength zero; yellow sentiment line at 11, strength zero; peak at 0.

• Digital Monitoring Model: moving averages show a bearish alignment; last week’s candle was a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow, up 0.3%; no bottom signals detected.

Overall assessment: Based on these three models, Bitcoin’s weekly trend remains clearly bearish, with no signs of divergence or extreme sentiment release. The market has been consolidating for weeks and is likely to test lower levels again.

2. Daily Level Analysis (see Figure 5):

Bitcoin Daily K Chart: (Momentum + Sentiment Models)

Figure 5

• Momentum Model: last week, the pattern was “initial rise then decline.” Momentum line below zero rising in sync, positive energy bars unordered.

• Sentiment Model: after last Sunday’s close, blue sentiment at 19, zero strength; purple sentiment at 35, zero strength, slowly recovering from oversold.

Overall assessment: The daily momentum and sentiment signals indicate the bearish trend remains intact. The current rebound is a oversold bounce with weak momentum, cautious market sentiment, and low capital participation, making the rebound short-lived and weak.

4. Market Forecast for This Week (03.09–03.15):

5. Construction of Bitcoin’s Upward Center (based on the low point after Feb 6): (Weekly update)

Bitcoin 4-Hour K Chart

Figure 6

Using the 4-hour cycle:

• Central structure: as shown in Figure 6, an “upward center” has basically formed. Resistance around $72,300, support around $62,500; upper boundary about $68,800, lower boundary about $66,250.

2. C-2 Wave Rebound End Judgment:

• We maintain our core analysis framework: Bitcoin’s rally from the February 6 low (~$60,000) is a super-overbought rebound within a larger C wave correction, with a subsequent C-3 wave correction expected.

• Bottom warning: as seen in Figure 6, our spread trading model triggered a bottom warning near point 0 on Feb 6 (red dot), accurately capturing the start of C-2 wave.

• Top warning: at recent point 11, the spread model triggered a top warning (green dot). The sequential bottom and top signals confirm a complete rebound wave, suggesting upward momentum may be waning.

3. Core View for This Week: Expect range-bound oscillation; the oversold rebound of C-2 wave may be nearing its end. Focus on directional shifts. The strategy should be to “reduce positions on rallies (longs) and manage risk.”

4. Key Resistance Levels:

• First resistance zone: $72,300–$74,500 (previously dense trading area)

• Second resistance zone: $79,500–$80,600 (near November 2025 low)

5. Key Support Levels:

• First support: around $65,000 (important previous support zone)

• Second support: $60,000–$62,500 (near February 6 low)

• Third support: around $57,400

5. Trading Strategies for This Week (excluding unexpected news): (03.09–03.15)

6. Medium-term Strategy: see Figure 7

Bitcoin Daily K Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 7

Position monitoring model: if the price is below the “long-short drift” (yellow), continue holding the 60% short position established at $89,000 on Jan 28.

• If the price effectively breaks above $74,500 during a rebound, reduce the medium-term position to 40%.

• If the price breaks above the drift and stabilizes, close all positions.

2. Short-term Strategy: Use 30% position with stop-loss based on support/resistance levels, seeking spread opportunities (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

3. Given the overall medium-term bearish trend, to adapt dynamically to market changes and based on signals from our proprietary trading models, we propose two short-term plans:

• Plan A: Resistance encountered during rebound, short on rallies.

• Entry: When price rebounds near $72,300–$74,500 and triggers resistance signals plus top signals from models, establish 30% short.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $75,500.

• Exit: close positions near key support levels when signals confirm.

• Plan B: Breakout short position.

• Entry: When price breaks below the lower boundary of the central zone at $66,250 and retraces without stabilization, combined with top signals, establish 30% short.

• Risk control: initial stop-loss above $67,500.

• Exit: close positions near support levels when signals confirm.

6. Special Reminders:

7. When opening a position: immediately set initial stop-loss.

8. When profit reaches 1%, move stop-loss to breakeven (entry price).

9. When profit reaches 2%, move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

10. Continuously trail: for each additional 1% profit, move stop-loss up by 1%, locking in gains.

Markets are volatile; all analysis and strategies should be adjusted dynamically. All viewpoints, models, and strategies are based on personal technical analysis and are for personal reference only, not investment advice. Invest cautiously; do not rely solely on this for decision-making.