الماعز العظيم (بيتكوين)

Bitcoin and Ethereum Structure Breakdown: The Bull Trap Endgame is Here, Shorting Requires Precision!

I. Core Perspective on Daily + Weekly Structure

Bitcoin (BTC)

- Daily: Surface appearance of "small consecutive gains + bullish moving average alignment" is an illusion, but MACD red columns continue to shrink in volume, RSI surges to 74.1 overbought zone, repeated failures to break above $94,400 high with frequent upper wicks exposing selling pressure. $93,000-$95,000 zone is where December trapped positions are dense, breakouts lack volume support—pure "fake-out."
- Weekly: Appears to be above EMA7 moving average, but hasn't broken through $98,637 weekly TBO resistance. Capital continuously flows to altcoins, BTC dominance breaks below 59%, upside momentum severely diverted. The so-called "W-bottom breakout" is actually a bull trap.

Ethereum (ETH)

- Daily: Following Bitcoin's rise but weakness evident, $3,250-$3,300 zone has heavy selling pressure, multiple attempts to break $3,307 high unsuccessful, decreasing volume with bearish divergence signals appearing. Moving average support appears solid but collapses at first touch.
- Weekly: Despite positive support from Blob parameter updates, $3,435 weekly resistance remains unreachable. Current momentum completely depends on Bitcoin, lacks independent upside momentum, high-level consolidation is pure "passive life support."

II. Clear Viewpoint: Bull Trap Endgame, Don't Blindly Short!

1. Iron-clad evidence of bull trap conclusion: 128,000 liquidations in 24-hour window, long liquidations of $288 million. Whales pulled up prices using "institutional ETF inflows" narrative, while frantically dumping at $94,000+ and $3,300+ levels. Retail traders' accumulation traces obvious; Meme coin sector surged 300%—essentially "final-round speculation" with nowhere else for capital to go; historically a precursor signal for trend reversal.

2. Core shorting logic: Bitcoin 4-hour bearish divergence + Ethereum inverted hammer; technical pullback demand can no longer be suppressed. $90,000 and $3,200 are key dividing lines. Once breached, will trigger cascade liquidations targeting $91,500 CME gap and $3,150 support level. After breakdown, directly watch $90,000 and $3,000 round number levels.

3. Risk floor warning: Bull trap endgame has extreme volatility—cannot blindly short! Must wait for "volume breakout below support" confirmation signal. Set stop-loss above previous highs ($94,400 and $3,307), avoid being stopped out by whales' final "wick fake-out." The core to flipping positions is "precise ambush" not "gambling-style herding."

III. Pro Trader's Operational Advice

Current market is the classic script of "whales harvesting retail." Seemingly bullish strength is actually "a spent force." Real reversal opportunities lie in "shorting after bull trap breakdown" not chasing highs for buys. Remember: Only enter after support breaks, lock stops tight, scale profits progressively—this is the fundamental logic of flipping positions in crypto.

#ETH走势分析