tonight's non-farm payroll data is coming, market expectations are that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.4%, with an increase of 50,000 in non-farm employment. More notably, the statistical department will also release last month's "incomplete" October data.

The current situation is a bit delicate. Both the US stock market and the crypto market are betting on a "soft landing" story — economic growth slowing down but not stalling, and the Federal Reserve continuing to keep the taps open. The problem is liquidity is already quite tight; if the data exceeds expectations and turns out negative, BTC, as a risk asset, won't withstand the pressure.

We saw this last night. After BTC fell below $86,000, it rebounded around $88,000; the leverage longs across the network were liquidated for over $500 million. The root cause boils down to two things: longs heavily leveraged, and market risk-averse sentiment suddenly rising.

But the good news is, on-chain data reveals another signal. The selling pressure from long-term holders isn't significant; rather, some large institutions (like certain top asset management companies) are quietly accumulating at low levels. If tonight's non-farm data doesn't produce a "black swan," a classic "sell the expectation, buy the fact" market pattern is likely to unfold. The short-term target is aligned with the $92,000-$95,000 range.